Re: [Phys-l] radiation cancers?

[Brian Whatcott <betwys1@sbcglobal.net>]

This URL
http://tinyurl.com/mct6zq 
  indicates 0.56 Mdeaths/yr from an incidence of 1.4 Mcancers/yr
as table 1.14 on page 54.   Reading the text on that page, it seems
your uncertainty is shared by people in the radiation oncology field too.

Brian W


kyle forinash wrote:
> Hi,
>
> I've gotten myself really confused I think. Here is data from Chernobyl 
> used to calculate radiation risk. (Cancers, not death rate.)
>
> Chernobyl data:
>
> Dose(Sv)/Victims/Expected cancers/Actual cancers/Excess cancers
> <0.01	 42,702	4267	4286	19
> 0.01-0.1 21,479	2191	2223	32
> 0.1-0.2	 5307	574	599	25
> 0.2-0.5	 5858	623	759	136
> 0.5-1.0	 2882	289	418	129
> 1.0-2.0	 1444	140	273	133
>  >2	 300	23	55	32
>
> A plot of Dose vs excess/victims has slope ~0.45 cancers/Sv exposure.
>
> Assuming a linear dose model we can calculate the number of cancers due 
> to a given exposure.
>
> Annual US average exposure is ~3.6mSv/year (~3mSv natural) so 304x10^6 
> people x 0.45cancers/Sv x 3.6mSv = 492000 cancers (rate of 0.00162) 
> caused by radiation. Total cancer rate (CDC) is ~0.00475 or 
> 1.4x10^6/year. So radiation cancers are 34% of the total?
>
> That can't be right can it?
>
> What did I get wrong?
>
> kyle
>