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Re: [Phys-l] global temperatures -- a modest proposal



On Apr 6, 2009, at 3:57 PM, John Denker wrote:

On 04/06/2009 09:42 AM, David Appell wrote:

In 50 years we will probably have used up most of the oil, but then, if
nothing else is available, we will switch to coal, of which there is
enough to last a few hundred years.

Are you sure of that? On a worldwide basis?

When I do the numbers, it looks like if present trends continue
within a few decades we will have used up all (not just most)
of the world's oil, all of the world's coal, all of the world's
natural gas, and all of the world's 235U.

The numbers might /appear/ different if you include only the
current US trends, because the US has a disproportionately
large share of the world's coal yet is burning it at a
disproportionately low rate, preferring (for the moment) to
burn imported oil.

To repeat: On a worldwide basis, including coal does not solve
the problem, and even including 235U does not solve the problem.

There are only two ways out: renewable energy and/or breeder
reactors.

Breeder reactors can get energy from 238U, which is 200 times
more abundant than 235U. Also thorium. This could provide
energy for a few centuries (not just a few decades). However,
almost* nobody wants to propose this as a solution, because it
makes the weapons proliferation problem so much worse. Also
the track record for breeder reactor safety is not good. . .

Yes, "renewable energy" is the most desirable. For the time being it is too expensive, in comparison with coal. This would probably no longer be true if the cost of pollution was added to coal plants IN ALL COUNTRIES. The 235U can be a fuel to feel for the time being, say for another 50 years.

P.S.

I do not remember if attachments are acceptable. I will try to send a picture in a separate message, in couple of minutes.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Ludwik Kowalski, a retired physics teacher and an amateur journalist. Updated links to publications and reviews are at:

http://csam.montclair.edu/~kowalski/cf/ http://csam.montclair.edu/~kowalski/my_opeds.html http://csam.montclair.edu/~kowalski/revcom.html