Re: [Phys-l] global temperatures

["Rick Tarara" <rtarara@saintmarys.edu>]

We need to keep the questions clear here.  The polar melting (and there has 
been some controversy on that lately as well), and the permafrost thawing 
are clear signs that the global temperature is up (but not as high as it has 
been before--geological time scales, not human).  That is not the question 
here.  The question really is how the models, and we really ARE still 
talking models on which decisions are now seriously being based, deal with 
the last 10 years when the global temperature has not increased.  We have 
been told that this is not contrary to the models, but is that enough?  CO-2 
is still increasing, so if that is the dominant culprit for the current high 
temperatures, what is compensating to hold the temps for a decade?  Is it 
natural, is it just statistical fluctuation, is it artificial (I earlier 
wondered out loud about the aerosol effect).  What I also noted--with no 
comment to date--is that the RATE of global temperature increase during the 
80s and 90s matches the RATE of increase very early in the 20th Century.  Is 
that covered in the models?

None of these questions should be taken as nay-saying or blind skepticism, 
rather (I think) legitimate questions about the MODELS which we are (forced) 
to use for future planning.  All data, including a decade long pause in 
temperature increases, are tests for these models.  How well do they 
accommodate such data?

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "chuck britton" <cvbritton@embarqmail.com>


> I guess I AM a bit of a skeptic and it seems to me that polar melting
> and permafrost thawing is an exTREMEly reliable indicator of long
> term trends.
>
> Both of these indicators show warming beyond any previous period
> known to humankind.
>
> Datasets come and go - but the earth is forever.
>
>
> On Apr 3, 2009, at Apr 3(Fri) 5:18 , marx@phy.ilstu.edu wrote:
> > There has been a flattening and perhaps a slight decline in global
> > temperatures, depending on the
> > dataset you look at.
> _______________________________________________
> Forum for Physics Educators
> Phys-l@carnot.physics.buffalo.edu
> https://carnot.physics.buffalo.edu/mailman/listinfo/phys-l