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ABSTRACT: G.S. Chandy of the Math-Teach list has called attention to
David Brooks' Op-Ed piece titled "The Biggest Issue." Brooks wrote:
"I point to these two research projects. . . ["The Race Between
Education and Technology" [Goldin & Katz (2008)] and "Schools,
Skills, and Synapses" [Heckman (2008)]. . . . . because the SKILLS
SLOWDOWN IS THE BIGGEST ISSUE facing the country. . . . . this
slow-moving problem, more than any other, will shape the destiny of
the nation. . . . . . America rose because it got more out of its own
people than other nations. That stopped in 1970. Now, other issues
grab headlines and campaign attention. But this tectonic plate is
still relentlessly and menacingly shifting beneath our feet." I argue
that a bigger issue and a more menacing tectonic plate, seldom
mentioned by editorialists such a Brooks; economists such as Goldin,
Katz, and Heckman; and select committees - see e.g., "Rising Above
the Gathering Storm" [NAP (2007)], is the "Threat to Life on Planet
Earth."
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G.S. Chandy (2008), in his Math-Teach post "Re: Haim's Challenge
(Cont'd)" wrote (slightly edited) :
Brooks wrote [bracketed by lines "BBBBBB. . . ."; my insert at ". .
. .[insert]. . . . "; my CAPS]:
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
Why did the United States become the leading economic power of the
20th century? The best short answer is that a ferocious belief that
people have the power to transform their own lives gave Americans an
unparalleled commitment to education, hard work and economic freedom.
Between 1870 and 1950, the average American's level of education rose
by 0.8 years per decade. In 1890, the average adult had completed
about 8 years of schooling. By 1900, the average American had 8.8
years. By 1910, it was 9.6 years, and by 1960, it was nearly 14 years.
As Claudia Goldin. . .
.[<http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/goldin>] . . . . and
Lawrence Katz. . . .
.[<http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/katz>]. . . . describe in
their book, "The Race Between Education and Technology," . . . . .
[Goldin & Katz (2008)]. . . .America's educational progress was
amazingly steady over those decades, and the U.S. opened up a
gigantic global lead. Educational levels were rising across the
industrialized world, but the U.S. had at least a 35-year advantage
on most of Europe. In 1950, no European country enrolled 30 percent
of its older teens in full-time secondary school. In the U.S., 70
percent of older teens were in school.
America's edge boosted productivity and growth. But the happy era
ended around 1970 when America's educational progress slowed to a
crawl. Between 1975 and 1990, educational attainments stagnated
completely. Since then, progress has been modest. America's lead over
its economic rivals has been entirely forfeited, with many nations
surging ahead in school attainment.
This threatens the country's long-term prospects. It also widens the
gap between rich and poor. Goldin and Katz describe a race between
technology and education. The pace of technological change has been
surprisingly steady. In periods when educational progress outpaces
this change, inequality narrows. The market is flooded with skilled
workers, so their wages rise modestly. In periods, like the current
one, when educational progress lags behind technological change,
inequality widens. The relatively few skilled workers command higher
prices, while the many unskilled ones have little bargaining power.
The meticulous research of Goldin and Katz is complemented by a
report from James Heckman of the University of Chicago. Using his own
research, Heckman also concludes that high school graduation rates
peaked in the U.S. in the late 1960s, at about 80 percent. Since then
they have declined. . . . . . . [More specifically, on p. 7 Heckman
(2008) states: "According to what many regard as the official high
school graduation rate, U.S. schools now graduate nearly 88 percent
of students and black graduation rates have converged to those of
non-Hispanic whites over the past four decades. The evidence in
Heckman and LaFontaine (2008a) challenges these claims and
establishes that the high school dropout rate has increased among
native-born American children. Using a wide variety of data sources,
they estimate U.S. graduation rates. They establish that (1) THE U.S.
HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION RATE PEAKED AT AROUND 80 PERCENT IN THE LATE
1960s AND THEN DECLINED BY 4-5 PERCENTAGE POINTS. (2) About 65
percent of blacks and Hispanics leave school with a high school
diploma. Minority graduation rates are substantially below the rates
for non-Hispanic whites. Contrary to claims based on the official
statistics, they find no evidence of convergence in
minority-majority graduation rates for males over the past 35 years.
(3) Exclusion of incarcerated populations from the official
statistics substantially biases upward the reported high school
graduation rate for black males.]. . . . . .
In "Schools, Skills and Synapses," Heckman . . . . [2008]. . . .
probes the sources of that decline. It's not falling school quality,
he argues. Nor is it primarily a shortage of funding or rising
college tuition costs. Instead, Heckman directs attention at family
environments, which have deteriorated over the past 40 years.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
I point to these two research projects because THE SKILLS SLOWDOWN IS
THE BIGGEST ISSUE FACING THE COUNTRY. Rising gas prices are bound to
dominate the election because voters are slapped in the face with
them every time they visit the pump. But this slow-moving problem,
more than any other, will shape the destiny of the nation.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
America rose because it got more out of its own people than other
nations. That stopped in 1970. Now, other issues grab headlines and
campaign attention. BUT THIS TECTONIC PLATE IS STILL RELENTLESSLY AND
MENACINGLY SHIFTING BENEATH OUR FEET.
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
But, in my view, a BIGGER ISSUE and a more menacing tectonic plate is
the "Threat to Life on Planet Earth," seldom mentioned by educational
leaders; politicians; business executives; select committees [NAP
(2007); editorialists such as David Brooks; and economists such as
Goldin, Katz, and Heckman - see e.g., "Drivers Of Education Reform
and Gender Equity: Economic Competitiveness and Preservation of Life
on Planet Earth" in Part 2 of Hake & Mallow (2008).
"The Race between Education and Technology"
Title of a book by Goldin & Katz (2008)
"Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe."
H.G. Wells (1920)
REFERENCES
Brooks, D. 2008. "The Biggest Issue," New York Times, 29 July;
online at
<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/opinion/29brooks.html?ref=opinion>.
Because this piece may soon be available only to subscribers, I have
followed the helpful practice of mathematician Jerry Becker and
copied (i.e., "beckered") an annotated and referenced version into
the OPEN AERA-L archives at <http://tinyurl.com/5ofthx>. Such
copying in accord with "fair use" of copyrighted material as provided
for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. For more information go
to <http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml>.
Goldin, C. & L.F. Katz. 2008. "The Race between Education and
Technology." Harvard Univ. Press. Publisher's information at
<http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog/GOLRAC.html>:
"The book argues that technological change, education, and inequality
have been involved in a kind of race. During the first eight decades
of the twentieth century, the increase of educated workers was higher
than the demand for them. This had the effect of boosting income for
most people and lowering inequality. However, the reverse has been
true since about 1980. This educational slow-down was accompanied by
rising inequality. The authors discuss the complex reasons for this,
and what might be done to ameliorate it." Amazon.com information is
at <http://tinyurl.com/5773s8>.
Hake, R.R. & J.V. Mallow. 2008. Gender Issues in Science/Math
Education (GISME): Over 700 Annotated References & 1000 URL's:
*Part 1 - All References in Alphabetical Order
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/GISME-5t-Part1.pdf> (8.5 MB);
*Part 2 - Some References in Subject Order
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/GISME-5t-Part2.pdf> (4.8 MB).
Because periodic updates of GISME necessitate changing the URL's, an
address that will always work is "Reference 55 at
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/>."
Part 2 subjects are:
(a) Affirmative Action;
(b) Constructivism: Educational and Social;
(c) DRIVERS OF EDUCATION REFORM AND GENDER EQUITY: ECONOMIC
COMPETITIVENESS AND PRESERVATION OF LIFE ON PLANET EARTH;
(d) Education and the Brain;
(e) Gender & Spatial Visualization;
(f) Harvard President Summers' Speculation on Innate Gender
Differences in Science and Math
Ability;
(g) Hollywood Actress Danica McKellar's book "Math Doesn't Suck";
(h) Interactive Engagement;
(i) International Comparisons;
(j) Introductory Physics "Curriculum S" (for Synthesis);
(k) Is There a Female Science? - Pro & Con;
(l) Schools Shortchange Girls (or is it Boys)?;
(m) Sex Differences in Mathematical Ability: Fact or Artifact?;
(n) Status of Women Faculty at MIT.
Heckman, J.J. 2008. "Schools, Skills, and Synapses," Working Paper
14064, National Bureau Of Economic Research; online at
<http://www.nber.org/papers/w14064.pd> (1.9 MB). The abstract reads
"This paper discusses (a) the role of cognitive and noncognitive
ability in shaping adult outcomes, (b) the early emergence of
differentials in abilities between children of advantaged families
and children of disadvantaged families, (c) the role of families in
creating these abilities, (d) adverse trends in American families,
and (e) the effectiveness of early interventions in offsetting these
trends. Practical issues in the design and implementation of early
childhood programs are discussed." On page 5, Heckman writes: "The
Bell Curve. . . [Herrnstein & Murray (1996)]. . . . assigned a
primary role to genetics in explaining the origins of differences in
human cognitive ability and a primary role to cognitive ability in
shaping adult outcomes. If cognitive ability is genetically
determined and is primary in shaping adult outcomes, public policy
towards disadvantaged populations is limited to compensation. Recent
research, summarized in this paper, establishes the power of
socioemotional abilities and an important role for environment and
intervention in creating abilities. The field of epigenetics surveyed
in Rutter (2006) demonstrates how genetic expression is strongly
influenced by environmental influences and that environmental effects
on gene expression can be inherited. EVIDENCE IS PRESENTED IN THIS
PAPER THAT HIGH QUALITY EARLY CHILDHOOD INTERVENTIONS FOSTER
ABILITIES AND THAT INEQUALITY CAN BE ATTACKED AT ITS SOURCE. Early
interventions also boost the productivity of the economy.
Herrnstein, R. J. and C. A. Murray. 1996. "The Bell Curve:
Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life." Free Press.
Amazon.com information at <http://tinyurl.com/5tksfp>. Note the
"Search Inside" feature.
NAP. 2007. Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy,
"Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America
for a Brighter Future," National Academies Press; online at
<http://books.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html> : "In a world where
advanced knowledge is widespread and low-cost labor is readily
available, U.S. ADVANTAGES IN THE MARKETPLACE AND IN SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE. A COMPREHENSIVE AND COORDINATED
FEDERAL EFFORT IS URGENTLY NEEDED TO BOLSTER U.S. COMPETITIVENESS AND
PRE-EMINENCE IN THESE AREAS. This congressionally requested report by
a pre-eminent committee makes four recommendations along with 20
implementation actions that federal policy-makers should take to
create high-quality jobs and focus new science and technology efforts
on meeting the nation's needs, especially in the area of clean,
affordable energy: 1) Increase America's talent pool by vastly
improving K-12 mathematics and science education; 2) Sustain and
strengthen the nation's commitment to long-term basic research; 3)
Develop, recruit, and retain top students, scientists, and engineers
from both the U.S. and abroad; and 4) Ensure that the United States
is the premier place in the world for innovation. Some actions will
involve changing existing laws, while others will require financial
support that would come from reallocating existing budgets or
increasing them. "Rising Above the Gathering Storm" will be of great
interest to federal and state government agencies, educators and
schools, public decision makers, research sponsors, regulatory
analysts, and scholars.
Rutter, M. 2006. "Genes and Behavior: Nature-Nurture Interplay
Explained." Blackwell Publishers. Amazon.com information at
<http://tinyurl.com/5su54z>. Note the "Search Inside" feature.