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[Phys-l] Civilization's Last Chance?



In a recent LA Times article "Civilization's last chance," the prolific environmentalist Bill McKibben (2008a) wrote [bracketed by lines MMMMMMM. . . . ."]:

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It's not just the economy: We've gone through swoons before. It's that gas at $4 a gallon means we're running out, at least of the cheap stuff that built our sprawling society. It's that when we try to turn corn into gas, it helps send the price of a loaf of bread shooting upward and helps ignite food riots on three continents. It's that everything is so tied together. It's that, all of a sudden, those grim Club of Rome types who, way back in the 1970s, went on and on about the "limits to growth" suddenly seem ... how best to put it, RIGHT (emphasis in the original).

All of a sudden it isn't morning in America, it's dusk on planet Earth.

There's a number -- a new number -- that makes this point most powerfully. It may now be the most important number on Earth: 350. As in parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

A few weeks ago, NASA's chief climatologist, James Hansen, submitted a paper to Science magazine with several coauthors. The abstract attached to it argued -- and I have never read stronger language in a scientific paper -- that "IF HUMANITY WISHES TO PRESERVE A PLANET SIMILAR TO THAT ON WHICH CIVILIZATION DEVELOPED AND TO WHICH LIFE ON EARTH IS ADAPTED, PALEOCLIMATE EVIDENCE AND ONGOING CLIMATE CHANGE SUGGEST THAT CO2 WILL NEED TO BE REDUCED FROM ITS CURRENT 385 PPM TO AT MOST 350 PPM." [My CAPS.]

Hansen cites six irreversible tipping points -- massive sea level rise and huge changes in rainfall patterns, among them -- that we'll pass if we don't get back down to 350 soon; and the first of them, judging by last summer's insane melt of Arctic ice, may already be behind us.
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For more on Bill McKibben from the LA Times see "A force to be reckoned with" [Reynolds (2008)] who wrote [my insert at ". . . .[ insert]. . . .":

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Bill McKibben's writing -- part art, part essay, part journalism with more than a smidgen of harangue -- has framed the thinking on environmental issues for more than a generation. Two new books out this spring, "The Bill McKibben Reader: Pieces From an Active Life" (Henry Holt: 446 pp., $18 paper). . . .[McKibben (2008b)]. . . . .and "American Earth: Environmental Writing Since Thoreau" (Library of America: 1,050 pp., $40) ). . . .[McKibben (2008c)]. . . . ., will impress on the reader how calmly, if not always quietly, he has illuminated paths to the future, thinking alongside us about what might be possible, even as information hurtles toward us, technology blinds us and being human seems to mean something entirely different than what any of us would consciously want.
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BTW, I note that Bill McKibben is not commonly mentioned on either PHYSOC or Phys-L:

a. A search for "McKibben" (without the quotes) at the PHYSOC search engine <http://listserv.uark.edu/scripts/wa.exe?S1=physoc&X=-> turned up only one post "NY Review of Books article," in which Ernie Behringer (2004) calls attention to McKibben's (2004) New York Times review of books (that might interest PHYSOC subscribers) titled "Crossing the Red Line."

b. A search for "Bill McKibbon" (with the quotes) at the Phys-L Archive search engine <https://carnot.physics.buffalo.edu/archives> turned up only one post "Smoke and Mirrors at the United Nations," in which Jim Green (2001) asks if anyone has comments on an article of the same title by senior Cato fellow Patrick Michaels at <http://www.cato.org/dailys/02-26-01.html>. Michaels attacks the forecast of a possible global warming of 10ºF this century by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and writes "The original forecast of IPCC was baseless. Even Bill McKibben, author of the gloom-saying 'End of Nature' . . . .[McKibben (2006)]. . . . called it 'science fiction.' Those who bothered to look (which apparently didn't include many news editors) would have found that this calculation was only one of 245 made by the IPCC for climate change in this century."

Richard Hake, Emeritus Professor of Physics, Indiana University
24245 Hatteras Street, Woodland Hills, CA 91367
<rrhake@earthlink.net>
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/>
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~sdi/>

REFERENCES [Tiny URL's courtesy <http://tinyurl.com/create.php>.]
Behringer, E. 2004. "NY Review of Books article," PHYSOC post of 10 Jun 2004 22:24:51-0500; online at <http://tinyurl.com/3mtjrx>. To access the archives of PHYSOC one needs to subscribe, but that takes only a few minutes by clicking on <http://listserv.uark.edu/archives/physoc.html> and then clicking on "Join or leave the list (or change settings)." If you're busy, then subscribe using the "NOMAIL" option under "Miscellaneous." Then, as a subscriber, you may access the archives and/or post messages at any time, while receiving NO MAIL from the list!

Green, J. 2001. "Smoke and Mirrors at the United Nations," Phys-L post of 27 Feb 2001 23:47:02-070; online at <https://carnot.physics.buffalo.edu/archives/2001/02_2001/msg00762.html>.

McKibben, B. 2004. "Crossing the Red Line," New York Review of Books (NYRB) 51 (10), 10 June, online at <http://www.nybooks.com/articles/17179>. For an NYRB exchange between McKibben and Kent Dedrick regarding McKennen's review see at <http://www.nybooks.com/articles/17416>.

McKibben, B. 2006. "The End of Nature" Random House. Amazon.com information at <http://tinyurl.com/6k7fum>.

McKibben, B. 2008a. "Civilization's last chance: The planet is at a tipping point on climate change, and it gets much worse, fast," Los Angeles Times, 11 May; online at
<http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-op-mckibben11-2008may11,0,7434369.story>.

McKibben, B, 2008b. "The Bill McKibben Reader: Pieces from an Active Life." Holt Paperbacks. Amazon.com information at <http://tinyurl.com/4cdgl2>.

McKibben, B, 2008c. "American Earth: Environmental Writing Since Thoreau." Library of America, Amazon.com information <http://tinyurl.com/48kja7>.

Reynolds, S.S. 2008. "A force to be reckoned with: In 'The Bill McKibben Reader: Pieces From an Active Life' and 'American Earth: Environmental Writing Since Thoreau,' the writer keeps our eyes on the argument." Online at
<http://www.latimes.com/features/books/la-bk-reynolds13apr13,0,6978071.story>