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I suspect that the dough on the outer circumference is stretched more
nearly to its elastic limit, while that on the inner circumference (i.e.
surrounding the hole) is not. Raising the pressure "inside the balloon"
causes a greater displacement of the inner edge than the outer.
Experimental test, similar in spirit to John's "freely suspended" model:
make an assortment of disk and hemispherical shapes from dough, watch
them rise and measure whether the locus of greater expansion correlates
with the locus of smaller radius of curvature.