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[Phys-L] FW: [math-learn] Randomized Trials: Answer What Works?



Here is a cross post that brings up the issues fairly well.

John M. Clement
Houston, TX

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From Science, Volume 307, Issue 5717, 1861-1863, March 25, 2005. See
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/307/5717/1861. Note: This
article was brought to our attention by Richard Hake in a posting
Saturday, April 16, 2005.
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U.S. EDUCATION RESEARCH: Can Randomized Trials Answer the Question of
What Works?

By Yudhijit Bhattacharjee

A $120 million federal initiative to improve secondary math education
hopes to draw on an approach some researchers say may not be ready
for the classroom

When Susan Sclafani and her colleagues in Houston, Texas, received a
$1.35 million grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF) to
work with secondary math and science teachers, nobody asked them to
demonstrate whether the training improved student performance. "All
we had to do was produce qualitative annual reports documenting what
we had done," she says. Sclafani thought that wasn't nearly enough
and that NSF should be more concerned about whether the project
helped students learn. Now, a decade later, she's in a position to do
a lot more. And that's exactly what worries many education
researchers.

As assistant secretary for vocational and adult education at the
Department of Education (ED), Sclafani is championing a $120 million
initiative in secondary school mathematics that is built in part on
money shifted from the same NSF directorate that funded the Houston
grant. The initiative, included in President George W. Bush's 2006
budget request for ED now pending in Congress, will give preference
to studies that test the effectiveness of educational interventions
in the same way that medical researchers prove the efficacy of a
drug. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of new approaches to
teaching math, Sclafani says, will help school officials know what
works, and they can then scale up the most promising new curricula
and teaching methods. "Randomized studies are the only way to
establish a causal link between educational practice and student
performance," she says.

But some researchers say that such trials won't tell educators what
they need to know. And they believe their discipline is too young to
warrant a large investment in experimental studies. "Rushing to do
RCTs is wrongheaded and bad science," says Alan Schoenfeld, a
University of California, Berkeley, professor of math education and
adviser to both NSF and ED. "There's a whole body of research that
must be done before that."
--------------------------
Sidebar: Prove it. The Department of Education's Susan Sclafani
wants to see more experimental evaluations in math and science
education.
--------------------------
The proposed math initiative at ED would be a competitive grants
program to prepare students to take Algebra I, a gateway course for
the study of higher mathematics and the sciences. Applicants will be
encouraged to use RCTs and quasi-experimental designs to measure
whether the reform works, Sclafani says. The initiative comes at the
same time the Administration has requested a $107 million cut in
NSF's $840 million Education and Human Resources (EHR) directorate.
The cuts include a phasing out of NSF's portion of the $240 million
Math/Science Partnership program--a joint effort with ED to improve
K-12 math and science education by teaming universities with local
school districts--and a 43% decrease for the foundation's division
that assesses the impact of education reform efforts (Science, 11
February, p. 832). Sclafani says this "reallocation of education
dollars" reflects the Administration's eagerness for clear answers on
how to improve math and science learning across the country. That's
OK with NSF Director Arden Bement, who says ED is in a better
position than NSF to implement reforms nationwide.

Although NSF watchers are unhappy with the proposed cuts to the
foundation's education budget, a bigger concern for some education
researchers is that ED may be overselling RCTs. It's unrealistic to
think that RCTs and other quasi-experimental studies will magically
produce answers about what works, they say. Before comparing the
performance of students in the experimental and control groups (one
receives the intervention, the other doesn't), researchers must study
the factors affecting any change in curriculum or teaching methods,
such as group vs. individualized instruction, or working with
students whose native language is not English. Answering such
contextual questions, the critics say, is similar to finding out
whether a medicine needs to be taken before or after meals.

"You can design an RCT only after you've done all this work up front
and learned what variables really count," Schoenfeld says. ED's
approach, he argues, is likely to drive researchers to skip those
necessary steps and plan randomized studies without knowing why an
intervention seems to work.

Department officials insist that the time is ripe and have begun
funding a handful of projects drawn from 15 years of work in
curriculum development and teacher training, including efforts funded
by NSF. One is a study of Cognitive Tutor, a computer-based algebra
course for middle school students. Another looks at a new approach to
training 6th grade science teachers in Philadelphia. Diana Cordova of
the department's Institute of Education Sciences predicts that within
3 years, "they will tell us with reasonable certainty if an
intervention can improve student learning."
-----------------------------
Sidebar: Luck of the draw. Elk Ridge School is one of three
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, schools implementing a grade 6 reform
curriculum as part of a randomized controlled trial.
------------------------------
Some of the researchers conducting these studies aren't so sure,
however. One hurdle is convincing a large enough sample of schools to
agree to randomization. "Everybody wants to have the treatment,
nobody wants to have the placebo," says Kenneth Koedinger, a
psychologist at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh,
Pennsylvania, who's leading the Cognitive Tutor study. Another
problem is inconsistent implementation across the experimental group.
Allen Ruby, a researcher at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore,
Maryland, who is conducting the Philadelphia study, says that
problems at two of the three schools involved could end up masking
evidence of whether the training is working.

Schoenfeld predicts that these and other problems will confound any
analysis. "The likely findings from this study would be something
like this: Sometimes it works; sometimes it doesn't; and on average,
the net impact is pretty slight compared to a control group," he
says. "What do you learn from such findings? Nothing." On the other
hand, Schoenfeld says, a detailed analysis of how the implementation
was done at each school and how teachers and students reacted to it
could tell educators the conditions under which it would be most
likely to work.

The still-emerging field of evaluation research needs investments in
both qualitative and experimental studies, says Jere Confrey, a
professor of mathematics education at Washington University in St.
Louis, Missouri, who last year chaired a National Research Council
report on the need to strengthen evaluations (Science, 11 June 2004,
p. 1583). "You need content analysis to determine if a curriculum is
comprehensive. You need a case study, because a randomized trial
makes sense only if you know exactly what a program is and are
certain that it can be implemented over the duration of the
experiment," she says. Analyses are lacking on hundreds of
interventions now in use, she adds.

Sclafani says she doesn't disagree with the value of contextual
studies. But she says that taxpayers deserve more from their
considerable investment in school reform. "NSF has supported
exploratory work for a long time. There was an opportunity to collect
evidence about their effectiveness, but that opportunity has been
lost [because NSF didn't insist on experimental evaluations]."

Judith Ramaley, who recently stepped down as head of NSF's EHR
directorate, says she's glad that ED wants to build on NSF's work in
fostering innovations in math and science education by testing their
performance in the classroom. "The medical model makes sense for
them," says Barbara Olds, who directs NSF's evaluation division
within EHR. "We think there are many fundamental questions in
education that have not been answered."

ED officials are working with states to spread the gospel of
experimental evaluations. Under the department's $178 million
Math/Science Partnership program--the money from which has flowed
directly to the states for the past 2 years--state governments have
funded more than three dozen projects with a randomized or
quasi-experimental study component. (None has yet yielded results.)
And the department plans to do the same thing with the new math
initiative.

"Teachers are telling us: 'We know what works in reading; tell us
what works in math and science,' " says Sclafani. "We hope to be able
to tell them that, if you do a, b, and c, you'll be sure to see
results."
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