Clearly, the exit pollsters are wrong. They were a single organization
that was hired to conduct the poll and they, in whatever influence you
want to attribute, skewed their sample. Period. With a differential of
over 3 million votes on the Bush side and with a majority of counties
going to Bush in both the Red and the Blue states, there is no other
conclusion. Now you have to ask, what was the intent of the pollsters.
If you kept track of the polling before the election, there were, at
times, large differences between the various pollsters. I was very
surprised to see Fox news put Kerry so far ahead, since they are viewed
to be right biased. This could be seen as an attempt by Fox to get out
the republican vote. Perhaps the exit pollsters were also right
leaning. Who knows. The important point is that they are definitely
biased. A better method is called for.
Tom McCarthy
St. Paul's School
Hawley Observatory
325 Pleasant Street
Concord, NH 03301
(W) 603-229-4848
(H) 603-230-9624
-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Edmiston [mailto:edmiston@BLUFFTON.EDU]
Sent: Wednesday, November 10, 2004 8:19 PM
To: PHYS-L@LISTS.NAU.EDU
Subject: Re: Are the Forces of Darkness on the March?
David Marx said, "I like Dick Morris very much. What he was saying is
that foul play was going on in the early exit polls to make it look like
Kerry was going to win, which might make some Republicans stay home.
Again, I ask why we should believe the exit polls over the actual
results?"
(1) If the exit polls were rigged to make it look like Kerry were
winning, which side rigged them? Isn't it just as easy to believe that
a possibility of a Kerry win would draw out the Bush supporters to make
sure that Bush carried their state? Why is it assumed a projected Kerry
win would keep the Bush supporters home? If I were a Kerry supporter
and it looked like Kerry would win without me, that might prompt me to
stay home. On the other hand, if I were a Bush supporter this might
prompt me to vote and take my neighbor with me.
(2) Dick Morris explained that properly-conducted exit polls are used to
help verify there was or was not voting fraud. If the exit polls and
the actual results disagree, then one of them is wrong. Which one is
wrong?
Michael D. Edmiston, Ph.D.
Professor of Physics and Chemistry
Bluffton University
Bluffton, OH 45817
(419)-358-3270
edmiston@bluffton.edu