Re: Correction Re: Energy, population (and AIDs?)

[Jack Uretsky <jlu@HEP.ANL.GOV>]

IMO this would be an OK message for this list if it discussed the
"interesting" mathematics" involved in this simulation.  The justification
for discussing such problems in a physics list has to do with the insight
the discussions give us into generalized methods for solving classes of
problems.

As an example, the discussion of penny flipping in the classic book on
game theory taught us the use of minimax methods for solving classes of
game theory problems.  This is different from dscussions advancing a
particular political philosophy on a physics list.
                                                        Regards,
                                                                Jack



On Sat, 31 Jul 2004, Pamela L Gay wrote:

> Fruedian slip - This should be high *school* students, not high students
>
> Quoting Pamela L Gay <pgay@fas.harvard.edu>:
>
> > I recently saw an interesting mathamatical simulation used by a UN worker
> > to
> > explain the multi-variable nature of helping a small village to high
> > students.
> >
> > Say you start with a community of 500 where the infant death rate is 80%,
> > available water is fixed and just enough to serve the community, and food
> > comes from farming -- and they aren't using modern methods.
> >
> > Pretty much anything you do to help these people will increase population
> > and
> > pretty much nothing you can do will increase water. In a few years the
> > small
> > town that you tried to help will be suffering from water shortages. Because
> > water is getting used to drink, water won't be available for farming, so
> > the
> > increased population will also lead to famine. Death returns with a new
> > face.
> >
> > The only solution is to teach people they don't need to have 10 children to
> > garruntee that two will make it to adulthood. If people learn from
> > experience,
> > this lesson will take one generation to learn - but that is too long a
> > timescale for this.
> >
> > Has anyone seen (or done) a calculation of energy needs that takes into
> > account both population growth as well as deaths due to AIDs?
> >
> > Cheers,
> > Pamela

--
"Trust me.  I have a lot of experience at this."
                General Custer's unremembered message to his men,
                just before leading them into the Little Big Horn Valley