Re: Basic Choices and Constraints on Long-Term Energy Supplies

[Richard Tarara <rbtarara@SPRYNET.COM>]

> [Original Message]
> From: Shapiro, Mark <mshapiro@EXCHANGE.FULLERTON.EDU>

> Subject: Re: Basic Choices and Constraints on Long-Term Energy Supplies
>
> Why is it that nobody seems to want to discuss the "demand" side rather
> than the "supply" side of the energy problem.  Have we given up on
> population control entirely?
>
> Dr. Mark H. Shapiro

I don't think anyone has 'given up' on population control.  I know many
people in the field **think** that we are currently rapidly heading towards
population stabilization or even negative growth.  Unfortunately even if
these people are right, we will hit a minimum of 7.5 billion people and
more likely 8-9 billion before such stabilization is established.  So, just
on the basis of optimistic population projections, you are looking at about
a 50% increase in demand--just to maintain the status quo.  HOWEVER, with
both China and India having serious plans for bringing their populations
into the 21st Century (along with all the other so called 3rd world
nations), we could easily see the total energy demand increase by anything
from a factor of 2 to a factor of 4 in the next century--even at ZPG.
Where will we get the energy?

I've written many times about the myth that the U.S. could cut it's energy
use in half (down to Japan's per capita usage) while maintaining it's high
living standard.  The size of the country and the fact that we produce so
much of our raw materials makes comparisons to Japan useless.  My classes
constantly struggle to reduce energy use by 25% in our yearly project.
They have grandiose ideas, but once they run through the numbers, a 25%
reduction (through efficiency and reasonably mild conservation efforts) is
about as much as can be realistically expected.  The population of the U.S.
WILL grow by more than that before stabilization, so today's demand numbers
are really a minimum value for the future.

The main problem with trying to aggressively push population control, is
IMO, the same problem that has created so much world-wide turmoil--Religion
and Culture.  Various religions and many (sub)cultures vehemently oppose
population control.  Only the external pressures of food supplies, water
supplies, epidemics, and economic disaster are likely to persuade these
groups.

For those countries with the land and the money, a combination of Wind,
Solar, and biomass ***might*** be able to supply the needed energy to meet
these demands.  One can imagine a system of solar and wind farms, primarily
used to produce hydrogen, which would then be piped to be used in place of
natural gas and in fuel-cell or direct combustion engines for
transportation.  Along with the direct use of solar and wind, some hydro, a
little nuclear, biomass, and maybe even using the hydrogen (although this
is very inefficient) then can provide the electricity for lighting and
other such purely electrical demands.  Changing the current fossil fuel
infrastructure (which is actually very cheap) over to a 'green'
infrastructure is going to be costly.  Some of our project numbers suggest
10-14 cents per kWh in capital and infrastructure costs to do the job.  An
important factor here is considering the need for HIGH DENSITY energy
generation for densely populated regions.  I've seen that concern pushed
aside for a country like India with the use of the statistic that the
country is 70% rural.  The problem with that is that the 30% that live in
the very densely populated cities amount to more people than live in the
U.S.  Getting power to large metropolitan areas without the current high
density coal and nuclear plants is a serious consideration for all future
energy discussions.

enough rambling,

Rick

****************************
Richard W. Tarara
Professor of Physics
Saint Mary's College
Notre Dame, IN 46556
rtarara@saintmarys.edu

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