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Re: Basic Choices and Constraints on Long-Term Energy Supplies

[Original Message]
From: John Denker <jsd@AV8N.COM>

Then there is the 20-25 year lifetime of the panels--versus 60 years
plus for
nuclear or coal generated electrical plants.


That's irrelevant. Over such a lifetime, the cost of the
fossil-fueled plant is trivial compared to the cost of the fuel.
There's no point in calculating based on a 60-year lifetime
for the plant if you don't have a 60-year supply of fuel. Which
you don't.


It is relevant--at least in comparing coal to solar when you calculate the
cost per kWh over the life of the 'plant'. Largely because of the short
lifetime of PV panels, this cost is 2-3 times that for coal generated
electricity.

One needs a reference for what a 250x250 mi area really is. Your
comparison to 1/2 the area of Nevada is one way--but look at it another.
It is 3 times the area of all the roads in the country! ALL THE ROADS--but
not concrete or asphalt (although the amount of steel and concrete
necessary for such an area of PV arrays is stupendous as well), rather
somewhat more sophisticated material.

I do agree fully on the analysis for Japan. My latest energy simulations
(International Project) clearly demonstrates that to eliminate oil and gas
usage and replace such with wind/solar/biomass requires two things--land
and money. The U.S., Canada, Australia, and the like can do it because
they have both. India, Russia, to some extent China, and the like can't
afford the huge capital costs ($20-30 trillion for the U.S. over the next
century). Smaller but sparsely populated countries are OK, but Japan,
Great Britain, much of Western Europe, and the like don't have the
available land resources. Europe will probably have to become even more
inter-dependent with the West offering the capital while the East can offer
the land. Japan is probably in the worst shape--especially once the coal
and nuclear are gone. They should be investing heavily in fusion research
(hot or cold). ;-)

Rick

****************************
Richard W. Tarara
Professor of Physics
Saint Mary's College
Notre Dame, IN 46556
rtarara@saintmarys.edu

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