While I know essentially nothing about the models, it does seem to me that
there are a whole lot of atmospheric scientists working (around the world)
on modeling climate. As far as I know, they ALL are concerned about the
increase in CO2 concentrations. Models range from 2 to 10 degrees increase
over the next century with (I think) a doubling of the CO2. These folks now
are the primary customers for the biggest, fastest super computers--so their
models ARE complex but limited at the same time.
I would suppose there are some major feedback loops here--increase the CO2,
up the temp which increases the water-vapor which increases the temp, etc.
However, then throw in, more water vapor, more clouds, lower temp. Lots of
other factors, but supposedly the oceans are the biggest wild-card in all of
this. Evidence is that 10,000 years ago a sudden rush of fresh water into
the northern Atlantic changed the ocean salinity and density to the point
where the Gulf-Stream pipeline shut down and the global temp dropped 10
degrees in only a century. How the oceans react to any climate change could
either moderate or accelerate change and I don't think anyone is too certain
which.
So, despite some doubts expressed here, it would seem the bulk of the
experts ARE concerned about CO2 and I would trust for good reasons. It
still seems prudent to start planning how to limit additional carbon
emissions--just to be on the safe side.
Rick
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Richard W. Tarara
Professor of Physics
Saint Mary's College
Notre Dame, IN 46556
rtarara@saintmarys.edu
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