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Re: possibly OT: NYT article on GA creationism/evolution debate



I "like" the below, however, I think using the expression "(if enough
tickets have been sold)" makes the proposition non-falsifiable, and,
therefore, should be avoided.

also: I, again, recommend the book "Innumeracy" by JA Paulos, as he
discusses probability and coincidence including lotteries.

Here's one of his examples: An LA jury convicted a blond ponytail purse
snatcher who, after escaping on foot, was also seen making her getaway in a
yellow car driven by a black bearded man. Prosecutor: yellow car 1/10,
mustachioed man 1/4, ponytail woman 1/10, blond woman 1/3, bearded black
1/10, interracial couple 1/1000. Argued independent, therefore, total
prob. is one in twelve million, a number so low the couple matching the
facts must be guilty. On appeal (Calif. Supreme Court) the defense argued
to a somewhat more sophisticated "jury", the justices. The relevant
probability uses the binomial distribution, the 1/12,000,000, at least one
event, and a population of > two million couples. He obtained ~ 8%. They
"bought it".

bc

P.s. the 100% can only apply and will apply no matter how many are printed,
if the "winning" ticket is sold.

Rick Tartar wrote:

It seems to me that part of the problem with communicating much of this
to the public (in fact to almost anyone)is the difficulty in _really_
understanding large numbers, long times, and what statistical
probabilities really mean. Having any conceptual grasp of just how long
1.5 billion years is and how many reproductions have gone into the
evolutionary process is almost impossible. One can try analogies--look
at 1 second compared to 1.5 billion seconds--47.5 years, but somehow
most of these fail to really work.

Perhaps the lottery example comes closest to bringing some insight that
people in general could really understand. Yes the probability that the
ONE ticket that you hold will win is very close to zero, but the fact is
that (if enough tickets have been sold) the probability that someone's
ticket will win can be as high as 100%. However, this will not nearly
convey the magnitude of the number of cell reproductions that have gone
into turning a single cell organism of 1.5 billion years ago into any
living creature today. Now we may eventually be able to get every HS
graduate to have taken a Physics, Chemistry, and Biology course, but
getting them to take a stats course will be a harder sell. How many of
us have had one? (not me!)

Rick

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Richard W. Tarara
Professor of Physics
Dept. of Chemistry & Physics
Saint Mary's College
Notre Dame, IN 46556
rtarara@saintmarys.edu
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-----Original Message-----
From: phys-l@lists.nau.edu: Forum for Physics Educators [mailto:PHYS-
L@lists.nau.edu] On Behalf Of Robert Cohen
Sent: Monday, September 02, 2002 8:37 AM
To: PHYS-L@lists.nau.edu
Subject: Re: possibly OT: NYT article on GA creationism/evolution
debate

Daniel Price wrote:

If a particular event occurs, the probability of it *having*
happened is
one hundred percent. Whether or not the occurrence was quite
probable or
was highly improbable is completely irrelevant after the
fact. Anyone who
argues that the universe as it is must be the product of intentional
design, simply because of the slim likelihood of chance
events leading to
its current state, misses the above point. Tell lottery
winners, and the
young lady struck by a meteorite, that what has happened to them is
so
improbable that it could not have occurred.

...by chance. The implication, then, is that the lottery winnings and
meteorite event were the result of intelligent design.

_______________________________________
_____
Robert Cohen; rcohen@po-box.esu.edu; 570-422-3428;
http://www.esu.edu/~bbq
Physics, East Stroudsburg Univ., E. Stroudsburg, PA 18301