Chronology Current Month Current Thread Current Date
[Year List] [Month List (current year)] [Date Index] [Thread Index] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Date Prev] [Date Next]

Re: Global Warming?



Having just watched the Nova/Frontline special of last year "What's Up with
the Weather" (twice this week with my class), I can offer the following:

The cold December and January are facts about the WEATHER. That the 1990s
appear to be the warmest decade in the last 1000 years, is a statement about
CLIMATE. The evidence IS clear that there has been a .5 degree Celsius
increase in global temperatures over the last Century with the steepest rise
over the past 20 years. Artic temperatures (from a report on another list)
have risen about 3 degrees F (as predicted by most models) and the
retreating ice endangers a number of species including the polar bear.
Carbon Dioxide concentrations have been rising since the start of the
industrial revolution and are now higher than they have been at any time in
the past 450,000 years (ice core analysis gives us a good handle on this).

The question is really not whether or not we are warming the planet, it is
BY HOW MUCH? OK, there are pockets of devout skeptics, but the vast
majority of atmospheric scientists agree it is happening. ALL the computer
models point to an increase in temperature by the time the Carbon Dioxide
concentration doubles (before 2100), but some models say 1 degree F while
others say 8 degrees. Developing countries like Brazil, India, and China
hold the key to where we are going with Carbon emissions. It is quite
possible to quadruple the greenhouse gasses in the next century without
international action.

The 1992 special 'After the Warming' by James Burke questions our reluctance
to 'take out some insurance' on the Climate by moving now to reduce (or at
least cap) carbon emissions. Of course the financial ramifications are
severe and the recent experiences in California will not help sway public
opinion towards the hard choices necessary to wean ourselves from the fossil
fuels (90% of our energy needs).

Rick

**************************************************
Richard W. Tarara
Professor of Physics
Department of Chemistry & Physics
Saint Mary's College
Notre Dame, IN 46556
219-284-4664
rtarara@saintmarys.edu

FREE Physics Instructional Software
www.saintmarys.edu/~rtarara

Win9.x, WinNT/2000, Win3.x, Dos, Mac, and PowerMac
New: Student versions of the Animated Chalkboard
Windows and Mac CD-ROMs now available.
****************************************************


----- Original Message -----
From: "David Emigh" <emigh@COMMNET.EDU>
To: <PHYS-L@lists.nau.edu>
Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2001 4:28 PM
Subject: Re: Global Warming?


You always have to worry about claims like that because just what is a
"scientist". I usually ignore political statements when signed by people I
am
unfamiliar.

But having said that, many astronomers, are miffed at those climatic
models that
assume a stable sun. While the first ten months of last year were the
warmest
10 months since we started calulating world wide temperature in 1895,
December
2000 and January 2001 were the coldest worldwide months since the 1895.
While
we were setting modest record lows here in the states, Russia and Siberian
were
setting spectacular record lows for days on end. In Krasnoyarsk the
temperature
never got above -58F for the entire month of Decemeber, and January will
probably come in with even more deadly cold. Climatologists like Robert
Balling
at the University of Arizona are working on the variability of the sun and
the
earth's climate, but I do not know how good the work is. This is clearly
an area
where more needs to be done.

David Emigh

Eugene Mosca wrote:

There is a letter in this mornings Reading paper claiming that there is
no
basis for global warming. The author asks "How many scientists who are
not
on the government dole believe in global warming?" He goes on to answer
his
own question by stating "Seventeen thousand scientists have signed a
statement saying that global warming is not happening. How can you
disregard this fact? The Earth's temperature has not changed in the
last 60
years. This has been measured by weather balloons and satellite
measurements."

Does anyone know the basis for his claim that "Seventeen thousand
scientists
have signed a statement saying that global warming is not happening?"

Gene

**************************
* Eugene P. Mosca *
* 301 Constitution Blvd. *
* Kutztown, PA 19530 * Make you words sweet, you may have to eat
them.
* (610) 683-3597 home *
* emosca@ptd.net *
**************************