Re: Marilyn and puppy litters

[rgrandy@ruf.rice.edu (Richard E. Grandy)]

> So, did anyone else think Marilyn blew it yesterday?
>
> John
>
> P.S. For the "Parade Magazine-deprived," Marilyn had the cover article
> this week and the lead question, printed on the cover was, "Your dog has a
> litter of four.  Is it most likely that two are males and two are
> females?"

I thought it was oddly put, because the natural sorting would compare  2 M,
2F with outcomes like 3M,1F, and sorted that way 2M,2F is more likely.  But
if you have the alternatives all M, all F, 3 of one and 1 of the other,
equal numbers of M/F, then 3 and 1 wins.  So technically I think she was
correct, but the amswer "No" to initial question is only justified, and so
the question is only of interest, if you use that odd sorting.

Richard Grandy
Philosophy & CogSci
Rice University