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Richard Langer wrote:
The man has one of the following
older son older son
younger son younger daughter
The woman has one of the following
older son older son older daughter
younger son younger daughter younger son
Others (e.g., Stanley McCaslin, Maurice Barnhill, David Bowman)
presented similar evidence and all went on to use these equal
probability outcomes to answer the question.
Nevertheless, despite the fact that this line of reasoning is
absolutely *correct* (neglecting the very minor "real world"
considerations that some mentioned and the philosophical concerns
that Leigh and I have expressed), I do not find it at all
*convincing* at a gut level as Maurice--one of very few who responded
to my request and expressed a level of confidence in his answer--also
confessed. Moreover, I think the response from Marilyn's readers
proves my point. To them (and, obviously, to some if not most of
us), whether or not the known son is older *seems* irrelevant; the
*only* question in either case seems to be, "What is the gender of
the other child?" (I find it interesting to note that this *is* the
only question *only* because the order of birth info is *not*
irrelevant and only *when* the order of birth info is given.)
JohnI just reviewed probability, which I learned too late in life to be able
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A. John Mallinckrodt http://www.intranet.csupomona.edu/~ajm
Professor of Physics mailto:ajmallinckro@csupomona.edu
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