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This problem is difficult. It is also complicated. The answer is
well known, however, and that should be a guide to tell us whether we
are modelling it reasonably or not. The glib "explanations" in terms
of the Bernoulli effect are unsatisfying and unedifying in addition
to being incorrect. I can't find the Hecht explanation of the curve
ball which was cited as 98% correct and I'd like to have that page
number again