Hi!
There's just a note I'd like to add to the general discussion about
greenhouse effects. Quoting John Gribbin's "Hothouse Earth", pg.131,"Even
doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere...only increases
the amount of heat trapped by the greenhouse effect by an average of four
watts per square meter. The increase is so small because the
concentration of carbon dioxide is so large that most of the heat trying
to escape from the earth in the waveband from thirteen to seventeen
micrometers is trapped already- radiation that has been trapped by one
carbon dioxide molecule cannot be trapped by another one. But even this
modest increase in the strength of the greenhouse effect will cause the
world to warm slightly, and this will evaporate more water vapor from the
oceans. Because it absorbs across the infrared spectrum, and because it
is released from the seas in large quantities as the world warms, water
vapor is the single most important greenhouse gas. The modest warming
caused by a carbon dioxide doubling releases water vapor, which warms the
world a little more and releases more water vapor....studies show the
water vapor feedback effect amplifies the temperature increase by a
factor of three..."
My point in quoting this lengthy excerpt is that there are subtle and
complex interactions in climate change, interactions which might be far
more dramatic than those predicted by the presence of an apparently
innocuous environmental trigger. The magnitude of the danger to various
parts of the planet is certainly open to debate, and the argument should
evolve as more data becomes available. Perhaps there truly is no
problem, and careful investigation will confirm this beyond reasonable
doubt- but, because of the complexity of the problem, I just don't think
the case can be closed with our current level of knowledge. If we ignore
the possibility of a degradation in the world environment because of CO2
emissions and are wrong, somehow I don't think our great-great grandkids
will say "Well, the world's a more miserable place now, but they sure had
a great Dow Jones Average back then!" I think it's time for a heck of a
lot more research on this topic, with the willingness to make societal
adjustments in the interest of long term survival, if necessary.
(By the way, my favorite 'ostrich-in-the-sand' quote, from the Mayor of
St. Pierre, Martinique on the day before Mount Pelee erupted, wiping out
the city, "Do not allow yourself to fall victim to mindless panic.
Please allow us to advise you to return to your normal occupations."
-from "The Experts Speak" by Cerf and Navasky