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Re: population growth & physics ed



In 1980 the word among folks who claimed to know was that by the mid 90's oil
supplies would be unable to meet world demand, regardless of price, yet oil
prices, allowing for inflation, have actually decreased.

In 1952, when I was in high school, the word was that the "proved reserves"
of oil would be exhausted in twelve years. Clearly that was not all ignorance;
there was conscious intent to deceive on the part of whomever injected that
"fact" into our curriculum. It is that dishonesty which offends me most. It
still goes on.

Some scientists have predictied that the earth was close to its population
limits for decades, maybe centuries? However, somehow we manage to support
larger and larger populations. Where and when will it end? If we're honest
I think we recognize that we have a finite earth and there must be some limit,
but when it comes to what the limiting factors actually will be and when they
will kick in even the most astute among us can do little more than speculate.

The best example of that was in "The Limits to Growth". A conscious effort
was made to sell the point of view (now thoroughly discredited) of the
authors by intellectually dishonest means. It is well known that people
consider computers to be, somehow, less prone to error than the people who
program them, and also to be less biased. In "Limits to Growth" the authors
include graphs conspicuously made on a computer line printer even though
one of them was an academic who could not have got such a thing accepted by
a scholarly journal, and the remainder of the book is neatly typeset.

To be honest we must indeed admit that there are limits to growth. Why is it
necessary to lie about them consciously? I have a distaste for growth; that
is my selfish, personal orientation. I would not lie to further my cause. It
has been done; it doesn't work.

Leigh