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Re: [Phys-L] how research is done : exploring a maze using only local information

I think there are several issues associated with this advice. First, how does one know that one has all the plausible scenarios. Second, what is plausible depends to a great extent on our prior beliefs of how the world works, so for some all the plausible scenarios may indeed be not the way the world works, and so each is wrong.

The power of our beliefs cannot be overestimated. People will claim to have sense something, when it did not happen simply because they believe it will. For all of us, I think the power of reproducibility in science is that we get bludgeoned by the world until we give up on some ideas and adopt others that are more consistent with the way the world actually works.

best,

joe

Joseph J. Bellina, Jr. Ph.D.
Retired Professor of Physics
Co-Director, Northern Indiana Science, Mathematics, and Engineering Collaborative (NISMEC)
Consultant I-STEM Network
574-276-8294
inquirybellina@comcast.net




On Sep 18, 2015, at 2:39 PM, John Denker <jsd@AV8N.COM> wrote:

I'll say it one more time: You should consider *all*
the plausible scenarios. Then you don't have to guess,
and you don't have to be Wrong.