Re: [Phys-L] Liars?

[John Denker <jsd@av8n.com>]

On 12/25/2015 11:40 AM, Richard Tarara wrote:

> Might want to look at something like this before calling anyone
> liars......
>
> https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/why-did-earth%E2%80%99s-surface-temperature-stop-rising-past-decade

I've seen that.

1) First of all, I didn't say they were all liars.  I said
 "a lot of" them.

2) That reference is a press release, not a scientific paper.

3) That reference agrees that the data from 1998 through 2014
 is rising at the same pace as the entire second half of the
 20th century.

 I would add that the data from 1997 through 2014 is rising
 faster than average.  Ditto for 1996 through 2014.  Ditto
 for lots of other intervals.  This is obvious from looking
 at the data.  It's what I've been saying for years.

 Furthermore, 2015 is on pace to shatter all records.

4) That reference mischaracterizes what the 5th IPCC report
 said.  The "hiatus" was not a "conclusion".  It should be
 obvious to anyone who has ever looked at real-world data 
 that there will be fluctuations.  A fluctuation is not the
 same as a trend.  The IPCC pointed out that if you look at
 the record and cherry-pick an interval, you can always find
 weird stuff.  The IPCC expressed  quote /high confidence/ 
 that the future trend would follow the long-term historical
 trend, not some 10- or 15-year subsample.

I stand by what I said.  It takes "some" skill to interpret
noisy data.  Some skill, but not much.