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Re: [Phys-L] climate change continues apace

On 06/08/2015 09:57 PM, I wrote:

In case you missed it:

the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15
years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of
the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a
“slowdown” in the increase of global surface temperature.
Thomas R. Karl et al. (mostly NOAA guys)
"Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus"
Science (June 4 2015)

Here are some more recent developments:

*) "Record-crushing October keeps Earth on track for hottest year in 2015"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/17/record-crushing-october-keeps-earth-on-track-for-hottest-year-in-2015/

That includes this map that shows warmth almost everywhere
https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2015/11/nmaps.gif
which stands in contrast to what you used to see, which was
pockets of near-normalcy amongst the warm regions. The new
map is harder to misinterpret.

It also includes the following graph:
https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2015/11/hottest-October.png
Again, this doesn't tell me much I didn't already know, because
I am smart enough to (mostly) ignore the fluctuations and
(mostly) pay attention to the medium- and long-term trends.
However, it has the advantage that it's harder to misinterpret.
You cannot look at this graph and claim that the warming
trend is "slowing".

That claim was always based on being clueless or dishonest
about the fluctuations, in particular about the humongous
El Niño event in the winter of 1997-98. Now that we are
having another El Niño, everyone can see what sane people
were seeing all along. [See also next message.]

There is a rule that says "Beware of selecting the data."
So you should not place too much confidence in a graph that
shows only the Octobers. Confidence is increased by the
fact that September 2015 followed the same pattern: the
warmest September on record.

*) Speaking of El Niño:

"By one measure, this wicked El Niño is the strongest ever recorded: What it means"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/16/by-one-measure-this-wicked-el-nino-is-the-strongest-ever-recorded-what-it-means/

The current El Niño is on pace to be comparable to the
humongous 1997-98 event: maybe a little less intense,
maybe a little more.

*) Some data (Oceanic Niño Index) to put this year in perspective:
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm