Re: [Phys-L] einstein --> misattribution in general --> appeal to authority in general

[John Denker <jsd@av8n.com>]

On 07/21/2014 12:29 PM, Bill Norwood wrote:
> - Oops, but Einstein could have had special insight into insanity.
> - His son was mentally ill and was cared for in England, and Albert
> Einstein rarely or never visited. Am I getting this right?

1) Anybody with any insight into mental illness would know that
 repetition is not the same as perseveration, stereotypy, or
 obsession/compulsion.

 Even if it were the same, or even close, it would be at most
 a symptom, not even a particularly common symptom, certainly 
 not the /definition/ of mental illness.

2) Anybody with any insight into physics or probability would 
 know that repeated sampling of the same probability distribution,
 in hopes of finding a low-probability high-payoff event, is not 
 the least bit insane.  In fact a great deal of good research
 fits in this category.

 This is not restricted to laboratory science.  Virtually all
 of the minerals industry depends on finding a vein that is
 many, many, many standard deviations richer than the "average"
 distribution.  Prospecting and wildcatting are risky, but not
 insane.

 A good scientist -- or prospector -- is an expert at managing
 risk.

 There is an extensive literature on fat tails, et cetera -- 
 going back to the earliest days of probability theory (1656).
 The idea of a "black swan" event goes back more than 2000 years.