Re: [Phys-L] Garth Paltridge: Climate Change's Inherent Uncertainties

[Richard Tarara <rtarara@saintmarys.edu>]

Throwing this kind of garbage around as though it was the 'gospel truth' 
is every bit as bad as pretending global warming doesn't exist at all.  
This is one model (amongst dozens) and clearly a worst case scenario.  
If there were even a 10% chance of this outcome, the international 
scientific and governmental responses would be shouting VERY loudly for 
immediate and drastic action.  The IPCC range of possible 2100 outcomes 
are much more modest here.

Even a concerted world-wide effort to reduce carbon emissions will take 
50-100 years if we are not going to just 'turn off the switch'.  Phasing 
out fossil fuels still requires large fossil supplies for decades to 
come and better for a nation like the U.S. to have secure, domestic 
(count Canada and Mexico in as domestic) supplies.  Those who hold that 
the Iraq conflicts were mostly about oil should examine the consequences 
of not securing the levels of domestic supplies that will be needed EVEN 
in an accelerated program of fossil reductions.

Bottom line really is that there is no guarantee that we can ramp up 
wind and solar to the level needed to run the world without fossil fuels 
even with maximal efficiency and considerably more conservation folded 
in--at least not to a level providing 21st century living standards and 
a 9-10 trillion population.

rwt


On 2/6/2014 10:25 AM, Jim Diamond wrote:
> We are accelerating emissions at a rate that puts the world on
> Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (the worst case scenario), with  a
> projected 6°C increase by 2100.
>
> See, for example, page five of this UNFCC
> presentation<http://unfccc.int/files/methods_and_science/research_and_systematic_observation/application/pdf/13_kondo_cmp5_projection.pdf>
> .
>
> Still think Keystone XL or exporting coal is a good idea?
>
> Jim
> --
> James J. Diamond, Ph.D.
> Department of Chemistry
> Linfield College
> McMinnville, OR 97128
> _______________________________________________
> Forum for Physics Educators
> Phys-l@phys-l.org
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--
Richard Tarara
Professor of Physics
Saint Mary's College

free Physics educational software at
www.saintmarys.edu/~rtarara/software.html