Re: [Phys-L] Garth Paltridge: Climate Change's Inherent Uncertainties

[Jim Diamond <jiminoregon@gmail.com>]

> Direct quote from IPCC website:
> "Model experiments show that even if all radiative forcing agents were
> held constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming trend would occur in
> the next two decades at a rate of about 0.1°C per decade, due mainly to the
> slow response of the oceans. About twice as much warming (0.2°C per decade)
> would be expected if emissions are within the range of the SRES scenarios.
> Best-estimate projections from models indicate that decadal average warming
> over each  inhabited continent by 2030 is insensitive to the choice among
> SRES scenarios  and is very likely to be at least twice as large as the
> corresponding  model-estimated natural variability during the 20th century.
> "
> 6°C ??
> Bob at PC


We are accelerating emissions at a rate that puts the world on
Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (the worst case scenario), with  a
projected 6°C increase by 2100.

See, for example, page five of this UNFCC
presentation<http://unfccc.int/files/methods_and_science/research_and_systematic_observation/application/pdf/13_kondo_cmp5_projection.pdf>
.

Still think Keystone XL or exporting coal is a good idea?

Jim
--
James J. Diamond, Ph.D.
Department of Chemistry
Linfield College
McMinnville, OR 97128