Re: [Phys-l] Climate skeptic convinced by data. Was: Re: Mike Mann _The hockey

[John Denker <jsd@av8n.com>]

On 02/18/2012 06:50 PM, Anthony Lapinski wrote:
> Global warming is a complex issue, and I'm no expert. I'm not sure
> what the "overwhelming scientific consensus" is either.
>
> Check out this ten-minute video clip (Unstoppable Solar Cycles):
>
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl4Pz1mwBao
>
> at 2:40 -- the little ice age at 4:15 -- correlations of sunspots and
> climate/weather at 5:25 -- Earth's temperature rises before CO2
> levels rise (by 600 years)!! at 6:50 -- oceans contain much CO2 and
> Sun's heat releases it
>
> It's certainly an eye-opening video -- if the data/facts are
> correct.

But they're not correct.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl4Pz1mwBao&t=3m14s
   "This current climate cycle is what most people call global warming.'

Sorry, no, global warming refers to something else.  The recent warming
is /unprecedented/ in the historical record.  It is /not/ explainable as
a continuation of historical cycles and/or fluctuations.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl4Pz1mwBao&t=3m32s
   "99.9 percent of the energy on the earth that goes into the climate system 
     comes from the sun"

That's the answer to the wrong question.  Haven't these guys ever heard of a
Taylor series?  The sun does an excellent job of explaining the zeroth-order
term.  However, the first-order term is another story.  Variation in the sun 
does not suffice to explain the recent variation in temperature.  Not even 
close.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl4Pz1mwBao&t=6m21s
  "In other words, a warmer earth leads to increased CO2 levels, not the
   other way around"

The fact is, a warmer earth leads to increased CO2 levels, *AND* the other 
way around.

It's a positive feedback loop.  Positive feedback is well known to produce
instabilities including disproportionately large responses to disturbances.
This should make you more scared, not less.

The thing about loops is that they don't have a beginning or an end.  Trying
to explain what you see in a feedback loop using unsophisticated notions of
cause and effect is guaranteed to be ludicrous.  IF (big IF) you do a frequency-
by-frequency analysis, the "cause" can lead the "effect" by 180 degrees or 
/minus/ 180 degrees or anything in between ... and even then you won't understand 
what's going on if you keep thinking in terms of cycles when the phenomenon of 
interest is not cyclic but is in fact an unprecedented _transient_.

As its title suggests, the video uses the word "cycle" again and again and 
again, but repetition is not proof.  It's not even evidence.  The observed
evidence is best described by saying the recent warming is unprecedented
i.e. not cyclic.  We agree that there are solar cycles, but they do not explain
the observed transient.

And by the way, the most potent greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is not CO2
but H2O.  Warming produces more H2O in the atmosphere.  This produces huge 
feedback effects that are not even hinted at in the video.

Also note that Greenland temperature does not exhibit 1-to-1 correlation with
global average temperature.

The discussion of "political corruption" comes straight out of the famous 
Karl Rove playbook:  Don't attack the opponent for his weaknesses;  attack 
his strengths.  For example, the guy who used political influence to stay 
out of Vietnam attacked a three-time Purple-Heart recipient, accusing him
of lacking military valor.  It's obscene.  The claim that the global-warming 
evidence is cooked up for short-sighted political reasons is cut from the 
same bolt of cloth.  It's ridiculous on its face, since in the short run 
there is nobody who gains by calling attention to the problem.

============================

According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Soon

> Willie Wei-Hock Soon (born 1966) is an astrophysicist at the Solar
> and Stellar Physics Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for
> Astrophysics. Soon has testified before Congress on the issue of
> climate change.  He is known for his views that most global warming
> is caused by solar variation. In 2011, it was revealed that he
> received over $1,000,000 from petroleum and coal interests since
> 2001.