Re: [Phys-l] Climate skeptic convinced by data. Was: Re: Mike Mann _The hockey stick and the climate wars_

["David Marx" <marx@phy.ilstu.edu>]

On 18 Feb 2012 at 13:33, John Denker wrote:

> This is where the rubber meets the as-yet-unfinished road.
> The existing climate models don't explain regional variations
> particularly well.
I would add here that the existing climate models do not explain anything all that well.  In particular, we 
do not understand forcings and feedbacks well enough and in some cases the estimates for 
parameters are poor guesses.  The models do not explain the past 15 years well at all, where there 
has been no significant increase in global temperatures.  The average temperature has remained 
about 0.4 C above the 1979-97 mean value.  For the month of Januray, the average global 
temperature is 0.09 C below the 1979-2009 mean value.  It'll be a long while before the models 
become sophisticated enough to make regional predictions.