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[Phys-l] New information on the global warming front



http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1375.html

Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty
Norman G. Loeb,
John M. Lyman,
Gregory C. Johnson,
Richard P. Allan,
David R. Doelling,
Takmeng Wong,
Brian J. Soden
& Graeme L. Stephens

Nature Geoscience(2012)doi:10.1038/ngeo1375

Global climate change results from a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the thermal radiation emitted back to space1. An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper-ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as ‘missing energy’ in the system2. Here we present a revised analysis of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere from satellite data, and we estimate ocean heat content, based on three independent sources. We find that the difference between the heat balance at the top of the atmosphere and upper-ocean heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties in ocean measurements3, given transitions in instrumentation and sampling. Furthermore, variability in Earth’s energy imbalance relating to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is found to be consistent within observational uncertainties among the satellite measurements, a reanalysis model simulation and one of the ocean heat content records. We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50±0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.

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I think some of the deniers have pointed to inconsistencies in locating where the energy was going. Now this has been better resolved. There are popular articles on MSNBC and many other sites, but nothing on Fox or NYTIMES.

One of the main arguments put forwared by deniers is the increase in winter sea ice around Antarctica, but that is a seasonal pattern involving a relatively small thin mass of ice. Meanwhile satellite measurements show Antarctica is losing ice overall, the same as Greenland, the Arctic, and virtually all glaciers.

John M. Clement
Houston, TX