Re: [Phys-l] Monty Hall problem

[brian whatcott <betwys1@sbcglobal.net>]

Chuck,

the thrust of the folks with reservations is something like this, I imagine:

In a version of the puzzle exhibited here, the puzzle is cast in the 
present as what happens
 in one case on a game show.
A goat door is opened. a switch is offered.
We can suppose that the game host will apply this rule if the contestant 
chooses either the car door, or a goat door; always - or possibly not. 
Perhaps he will make the offer on most occasions, but with a greater 
than expected frequency when the contestant chooses the car door.

It is easy to argue that this is based on a real game show, where the 
offer is always made: but this may not be made explicit in a particular 
formulation of the puzzle, I suppose.

Brian W

On 1/5/2011 10:00 PM, chuck britton wrote:
> Each Marilyn scenario that I have read includes the host opening a
> goat door and offering a switch.
> Have I missed one? And I have now perused the archive links that have
> been offered.
>
> I understand the optimal strategy that follows such an opening +
> offering to be to switch.
>
> Yes the hour is drawing late - but I WOULD like to know if I am
> overlooking one of Marilyn's versions.
>
> (Just the facts)
>
> .
> At 7:51 PM -0800 1/5/11, John Mallinckrodt wrote:
> > Chuck,
> >
> > I'm not sure what more can be said at this point to help erase
> > whatever confusion may linger or how what has already been said can
> > be said much more clearly.  I can't help, however, but think that
> > the primary obstacle is simply that you might not have very
> > carefully read or considered the early posts in this thread.  You
> > may be just as happy letting it all go at this point, but if not,
> > I'd suggest taking a more leisurely pass through the archive
> > starting here:
> >
> > https://carnot.physics.buffalo.edu/archives/2011/1_2011/msg00072.html
> >
> > John Mallinckrodt
> > Cal Poly Pomona
> >
> > On Jan 5, 2011, at 7:14 PM, chuck britton wrote:
> >
> > >   I'm not interested in argument - just the facts.  (Moynihan style)
> > >
> > >   Will anyone point out a version of the Marilyn
> > >   Goat scenario that does not include the host
> > >   opening a goat door and offering a switch?
> > >
> > >   Will anyone say that switching under this Marilyn scenario is not optimal?
> > >
> > >   Probably not.
> > >
> > >   So indeed  - case closed.
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