Re: [Phys-l] Monty Hall problem

[chuck britton <cvbritton@mac.com>]

I'm still totally lost here.
Three doors, you choose one, the host opens a goat door.
You can then double your chances of winning (a car or a billion 
dollars) by switching your choice.

What am I missing???  (please)

So you don't like her explanation - does that change the 'facts'? (as 
Moynihan would say)


At 2:00 PM -0800 1/5/11, John Mallinckrodt wrote:
> It's also interesting to consider Marilyn's original "explanation" a 
> little more closely.  According to the seemingly authoritative 
> source that John Denker quoted, the original question and her 
> original answer were
>
> >  Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of 
> > three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. 
> > You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what's behind the 
> > doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to 
> > you, "Do you want to pick door #2?" Is it to your advantage to 
> > switch your choice of doors?
> >
> >  Craig F. Whitaker
> >  Columbia, Maryland
> >
> >  Yes; you should switch. The first door has a 1/3 chance of 
> > winning, but the second door has a 2/3 chance. Here's a good way to 
> > visualize what happened. Suppose there are a million doors, and you 
> > pick door #1. Then the host, who knows what's behind the doors and 
> > will always avoid the one with the prize, opens them all except 
> > door #777,777. You'd switch to that door pretty fast, wouldn't you?
>
> This "visualization" may sound pretty compelling, but what if we 
> further suppose that the prize was a billion dollars.  Would you 
> switch?  Without some pretty solid additional information, I sure 
> wouldn't.