Re: [Phys-l] probability problem

["Ann Reagan" <areagan@csmd.edu>]

For me, the easiest way to "see" what is happening in the Monty Hall problem is to increase the number of doors dramatically. Most students lack the intuition to see that switching doors increases the chance of winning. However, I've never had anyone argue that they wouldn't be better off switching if
a) they started with 50 closed curtains, one of which they knew hid a brand new car,
b) they picked one curtain at random, and
c) Monty then opened another 48 curtains revealing no car, leaving only two remaining closed curtains.

As to John's analysis of cases involving C, G, and S, I notice that this ignores the all-important cases P (Program length running short), and CB (Commercial Break needed).

> BTW, the Monty Hall problem is best understood by realizing that you 
> have a one in three chance of having picked the right curtain 
> initially and EVERY other time, the car ends up behind the one you 
> can switch to! 
>
> John Mallinckrodt 
> Cal Poly Pomona 

Dr. Ann M. Reagan
Adjunct Faculty
Department of Math/Physics/Engineering
College of Southern Maryland, Leonardtown Campus