Re: [Phys-l] "The Truth Wears Off" by Jonah Lehrer in The New Yorker Dec 13, 2010.

[brian whatcott <betwys1@sbcglobal.net>]

Probably something like this:
Notice that ice-dependent species like the Polar bear are
being disturbed by the changing frequency and longevity of ice-floats in 
the Arctic.

So then a 35 year study of another ice-dependent species like the Adele 
penguin of the
Antarctic shows it  is also being disturbed. In this case, where the 
Adele is hard wired
 to return to its birth-place, an impartial observer can report seeing 
the LAST birth of an
Adele chick to a population on a particular island.  The potential 
parents are dying
 over winter in changed ice-float conditions.  A sub-population down by 85%
 There's a tear-jerker!

   It is less gripping to notice that on the large scale of Adeles, 
there are still millions
 of breeding pairs left in viable locations of the Antarctic.    So far.

Brian W

On 12/31/2010 1:23 PM, Jack Uretsky wrote:
> Please, what result are you referring to, tha
> don't confirm the results"?
>         Regards,
>             Jack
>
> "Trust me.  I have a lot of experience at this."
>         General Custer's unremembered message to his men,
>         just before leading them into the Little Big Horn Valley
>
>
>
>
> On Fri, 31 Dec 2010, Folkerts, Timothy J wrote:
>
> > I wonder how much of this same effect is at work in AGW.  As the 
> > article says:
> >
> > "The disturbing implication of the Crabbe study is that a lot of 
> > extraordinary scientific data are nothing but noise. The 
> > hyperactivity of those coked-up Edmonton mice wasn?t an interesting 
> > new fact?it was a meaningless outlier, a by-product of invisible 
> > variables we don?t understand."
> >
> > and
> >
> > "The problem of selective reporting is rooted in a fundamental 
> > cognitive flaw, which is that we like proving ourselves right and 
> > hate being wrong. ?It feels good to validate a hypothesis,? Ioannidis 
> > said. ?It feels even better when you?ve got a financial interest in 
> > the idea or your career depends upon it. And that?s why, even after a 
> > claim has been systematically disproven??he cites, for instance, the 
> > early work on hormone replacement therapy, or claims involving 
> > various vitamins??you still see some stubborn researchers citing the 
> > first few studies that show a strong effect. They really want to 
> > believe that it?s true."
> >
> > There is a clear reason to expect AGW (increased CO2).  There is 
> > clear increase in temperature in the last few decades.  How much do 
> > researchers pursue results that confirm the results, while dropping 
> > results that so no results, simply from psychology, not impartial 
> > science?
> >
> > Tim Folkerts