Re: [Phys-l] H. Sapiens

["Dr. Richard Tarara" <rtarara@saintmarys.edu>]

I don't know how to do this really correctly, but I ran a spreadsheet 
calculation, using a population growth rate of 1.5% (close to recent, far 
from historical) and joining the creationists for the moment, started with 2 
people!  I then took the population every 50 years and added those to get 
total numbers (approximating a 50 year life span averaged over the 
centuries).  The amazing thing is that you get to today's population in less 
than 1500 years but you also get over 40% of the total humans to have lived 
being alive today.  While clearly recorded history goes back at least 10,000 
years and the growth rate must have been much smaller at times, it was 
during those times that the human population was very much smaller than now, 
so I suspect the final result of about 40% is not that far off.

Rick


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Dr. Keith S. Taber" <kst24@cam.ac.uk>
To: "Forum for Physics Educators" <phys-l@carnot.physics.buffalo.edu>
Sent: Tuesday, October 12, 2010 5:23 PM
Subject: Re: [Phys-l] H. Sapiens


> Good question: I recall reading/hearing somewhere that 10% of all
> human beings are alive today - but I don't recall how that was
> derived.
>
> And then similarly I've heard 90% of all scientists that ever lived
> are alive today.
>
> (I suspect there's material for some very poor joke in combining
> those two - along the lines "...and the other 10% are human beings.")
>
> Keith
>
>
> > I'd like to reprise the population topic briefly (for a change of pace).
> >
> > Folks seem to have a pretty good set of data that is being fit to
> > exponential form.
> > I'm reminded of Al Bartlett's many talks and must ask a question.
> >
> > Based on this exponential curve - about what percentage of the TOTAL
> > historical Homo Sapiens population is currently alive?
> >
> > This shouldn't be a terribly difficult % to come up with.
> >
> > thanks for indulging me.
>
> --
> Dr. Keith S. Taber
>
> http://www.educ.cam.ac.uk/staff/taber.html
> http://people.pwf.cam.ac.uk/kst24/
>
> Author: Progressing Science Education - Constructing the Scientific
> Research Programme into the Contingent Nature of Learning Science
> (Springer: 2009)
>
> University Senior Lecturer in Science Education
>
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