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Hi,
I've gotten myself really confused I think. Here is data from Chernobyl used to calculate radiation risk. (Cancers, not death rate.)
Chernobyl data:
Dose(Sv)/Victims/Expected cancers/Actual cancers/Excess cancers
<0.01 42,702 4267 4286 19
0.01-0.1 21,479 2191 2223 32
0.1-0.2 5307 574 599 25
0.2-0.5 5858 623 759 136
0.5-1.0 2882 289 418 129
1.0-2.0 1444 140 273 133
>2 300 23 55 32
A plot of Dose vs excess/victims has slope ~0.45 cancers/Sv exposure.
Assuming a linear dose model we can calculate the number of cancers due to a given exposure.
Annual US average exposure is ~3.6mSv/year (~3mSv natural) so 304x10^6 people x 0.45cancers/Sv x 3.6mSv = 492000 cancers (rate of 0.00162) caused by radiation. Total cancer rate (CDC) is ~0.00475 or 1.4x10^6/year. So radiation cancers are 34% of the total?
That can't be right can it?
What did I get wrong?
kyle