[Phys-l] radiation cancers?

[kyle forinash <kforinas@ius.edu>]

Hi,

I've gotten myself really confused I think. Here is data from Chernobyl 
used to calculate radiation risk. (Cancers, not death rate.)

Chernobyl data:

Dose(Sv)/Victims/Expected cancers/Actual cancers/Excess cancers
<0.01	 42,702	4267	4286	19
0.01-0.1 21,479	2191	2223	32
0.1-0.2	 5307	574	599	25
0.2-0.5	 5858	623	759	136
0.5-1.0	 2882	289	418	129
1.0-2.0	 1444	140	273	133
>2	 300	23	55	32

A plot of Dose vs excess/victims has slope ~0.45 cancers/Sv exposure.

Assuming a linear dose model we can calculate the number of cancers due 
to a given exposure.

Annual US average exposure is ~3.6mSv/year (~3mSv natural) so 304x10^6 
people x 0.45cancers/Sv x 3.6mSv = 492000 cancers (rate of 0.00162) 
caused by radiation. Total cancer rate (CDC) is ~0.00475 or 
1.4x10^6/year. So radiation cancers are 34% of the total?

That can't be right can it?

What did I get wrong?

kyle
--
------------------------------------------
 "When applied to material things,
the term "sustainable growth" is an oxymoron."
	Albert Bartlett

 kyle forinash   812-941-2039
  kforinas@ius.edu
  http://Physics.ius.edu/
-----------------------------------------