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Re: [Phys-l] Castles in the Sky #2



There were a few errors, omissions, and infelicities in my previous post "Castles in the Sky." This post is an improved version.

If you reply to this long (19 kB) post please don't hit the reply button unless you prune the copy of this post that may appear in your reply down to a few relevant lines, otherwise the entire already archived post may be needlessly resent to subscribers.

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ABSTRACT: H.G. Callaway, in his Dewey-L post "Castles in the Sky" referred to an article reporting that Alan Greenspan had defended his record as Fed Chairman and stated that "speculative excess" is inevitable in long periods of prosperity. Callaway then suggested that "the answer to excessive speculation is empiricism and the introduction of a more scientific attitude. Surely, the attitude of the scientific thinker, the orientation to facts, experiment and attempts at falsification is important in our attempts to control the excesses of philosophical speculation and the related tendency toward, let us say, 'castles in the sky'." But philosophers are not the only ones who build "castles in the sky." The sky castle building of traditional economists such as Alan Greenspan and Lawrence Summers, who seem to regard the economic system as divorced from the ecosystem, has been roundly criticized by ecological economists such as Herman Daly. Mihai Sarbu, in response to Callaway, opined that " 'castles in the sky' could be a timely conversation topic, given the seriousness of the current environmental challenges and the upcoming meeting in Copenhagen: how can John Dewey's theory of inquiry be applied to educating for ecological responsibility?" I think education in Dewey's inquiry mode plus e.g., Daly & Townsend's "Valuing The Earth: Economics, Ecology, Ethics," and Tim Jackson's "Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet" might help.
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H.G. Callaway (2009) in a Dewey-L post titled "Castles in the Sky" wrote [bracketed by lines "CCCCC. . . ."; my insert at ". . . .[[insert]]. . . ."]:

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I came across the following short report on views of former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, this morning. Greenspan basically defended his record as Fed Chairman and stated that "speculative excess" is inevitable in long periods of prosperity. I wonder what readers of the list may make of the ideas: <http://tinyurl.com/ydlbjz9> . . . .[[this URL (made tiny from the long URL given by Callaway) was *dead* on 27 November 2009 - however a reasonable substitute appears to be "Greenspan: Another Crisis Is Inevitable" (Iacono, 2009)]]. . . . .

It strikes me that such excess will only be "inevitable" if it is unconstrained by effective competition--that there is always something of insider trading involved in such episodes of speculative excess--such as that which produced the recent banking crisis.. . . . Greenspan also states that there is a tension between the forces favoring globalization of the economy and the attempt to introduce new regulation to protect the finance system and the world economy against the danger of a new financial crisis. This strikes me as correct. We can't have both, ever expanding world growth . . . . .[[in my opinion, on a finite planet we can't have "ever expanding world growth" PERIOD -- see my comments below]] . . . . and economic integration, plus effective control of the dangers of financial collapse. . . . . Whether you believe that Greenspan is right or wrong, these are certainly interesting claims and well worth consideration.
Beyond the purely economic questions, however, I sense an important analogy to the issue of philosophical speculation--akin to Deweyan "brain storming." In that context, it strikes me that the answer to excessive speculation is empiricism and the introduction of a more scientific attitude. Surely, the attitude of the scientific thinker, the orientation to facts, experiment and attempts at falsification is important in our attempts to control the excesses of philosophical speculation and the related tendency toward, let us say, "castles in the sky."

Comments invited. Has "American philosophy" been insufficiently scientific in recent years?
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In my opinion, philosophers are not the only ones who build "castles in the sky." The sky castle building of traditional economists such as Alan Greenspan and Lawrence Summers, who seem to regard the economic system as divorced from the ecosystem, has been roundly criticized by ecological economists such as Herman Daly <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Daly> - see e.g., Daly & Townsend (1992), Daly & Cobb (1944), Daly (1997), Daly & Farley (2003), Daly (2008, 2009), and my posts:

a. "Energy Efficiency, the Jevons Paradox, and the Elephant in the Room: Overpopulation #4," aka "Herman Daly's Ecological Economist View Contrasted with the Traditional Economist View of Lawrence Summers and the World Bank" [Hake (2009a) and

b. "Misconceptions in the Population/Energy Debate #2" [Hake (2009b)].

Callaway's (2009) post initiated an interesting thread, accessible at <http://tinyurl.com/yhrfc8c>, which consisted of 21 posts (as of 26 November 13:03:00-0800). The last was by economist Mihai Sarbu (2009) who wrote:

"Maybe this . . . . [[Castles in the Sky]]. . . . could be a timely conversation topic, given the seriousness of the current environmental challenges and the upcoming meeting in Copenhagen: how can John Dewey's theory of inquiry be applied to educating for ecological responsibility?"

Good question! Education in the Dewey's inquiry mode [see e.g., Ansbacher (2000)] plus e.g., Daly & Townsend's (1992) "Valuing The Earth: Economics, Ecology, Ethics," and Tim Jackson's (2009) "Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet" and might help.

The Forward of Jackson's book begins [bracketed by lines "JJJJJJ. . . . "]:

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Every society clings to a myth by which it lives. Ours is the myth of economic growth. For the last five decades the pursuit of growth has been the single most important policy goal across the world. The global economy is almost five times the size it washalf a century ago. If it continues to grow at the same rate the economy will be 80 times that size by the year 2100.

This extraordinary ramping up of global economic activity has no historical precedent. It's totally at odds with our scientific knowledge of the finite resource base and the fragile ecology on which we depend for survival. And it has already been accompanied by the degradation of an estimated 60% of the world's ecosystems.

For the most part, we avoid the stark reality of these numbers. The default assumption is that - financial crises aside - growth will continue indefinitely. Not just for the poorest countries, where a better quality of life is undeniably needed, but even for the richest nations where the cornucopia of material wealth adds little to happiness and is beginning to threaten the foundations of our wellbeing.

The reasons for this collective blindness are easy enough to find. The modern economy is structurally reliant on economic growth for its stability. When growth falters - as it has done recently - politicians panic. Businesses struggle to survive. People lose their jobs and sometimes their homes. A spiral of recession looms. Questioning growth is deemed to be the act of lunatics, idealists and revolutionaries. But question it we must. The myth of growth has failed us. It has failed the two billion people who still live on less than $2 a day. It has failed the fragile ecological systems on which we depend for survival. It has failed, spectacularly, in its own
terms, to provide economic stability and secure people's livelihoods.
JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ

Richard Hake, Emeritus Professor of Physics, Indiana University
24245 Hatteras Street, Woodland Hills, CA 91367
Honorary Member, Curmudgeon Lodge of Deventer, The Netherlands.
<rrhake@earthlink.net>
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/>
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~sdi/>
<http://HakesEdStuff.blogspot.com/>

"Universities must take the lead in developing knowledge and educating the world's citizens to allow us to live upon our planet while protecting it. "
James J. Duderstadt (2002) Duderstadt is President Emeritus and University Professor of
Science and Engineering, University of Michigan.

"Clearly the economy must conform to the rules of a steady state - seek qualitative development, but stop aggregate quantitative growth. GDP increase conflates these two very different things."
Herman Daly (2008)

"Nowadays, error in economics must be maintained by complicated mathematics rather than easy logic. Personally, I do not see a brave army of heretics yet emerging from the economics departments across our nation. The curriculum is designed to spot potential heretics early and flunk them out. RENEWAL IS MORE LIKELY TO COME FROM OUTSIDE CHALLENGES TO THE DISCIPLINE. . . . . [[My CAPS.]. . . . Is it reasonable to hope for help from the physical sciences and the humanities? Is it part of the role of each discipline to challenge other disciplines? In the name of truth, beauty, and righteousness, can scientists, humanists, and citizens ask economists if maybe the system is sufficiently imperfect that people really do need to be good? It would be folly to pretend that people are so good that any system will work but is it not also folly to believe that the system can be so perfect that it will really transform private evil into public good? Maybe economics should return to its origins as a part of moral philosophy."
Herman Daly (2009).

REFERENCES [Tiny URL's courtesy <http://tinyurl.com/create.php>.]
Ansbacher, T. 2000. "An interview with John Dewey on science education." The Physics Teacher 38(4): 224-227; freely online as a 1.3 MB pdf at <http://www.scienceservs.com/> / "Articles in pdf" at top of page / "An interview with John Dewey" (where "/" means "click on"). An especially thoughtful and well-researched treatment that shows the consonance of Dewey's educational ideas (as quoted straight from Dewey's own writings, not from the accounts of sometimes confused Dewey interpreters) with the thinking of most current science-education researchers, viz., conceptual understanding can be more effectively promoted through "interactive engagement of students in heads-on (always) and hands-on (usually) activities which yield immediate feedback through discussion with peers and/or instructors" [Hake (1998a,b)].

Aubrecht, G.J. 2006. "Energy: Physical, Environmental, and Social Impact." Third Edition. Addison-Wesley; publisher's information at <http://tinyurl.com/nbfb6r>. Amazon.com information at <http://tinyurl.com/lsjbxe>. A good companion text for an interdisciplinary physics/economics course might be Daly & Farley (2003).

Callaway, H.G. 2009. "Castles in the Sky" Dewey-L post of 10 Sep 2009 09:11:01-0400; online on the OPEN! Dewey-L archives at <http://tinyurl.com/ybbphtu>. For a listing of Callaway's works see <http://philpapers.org/autosense.pl?searchStr=H.%20G.%20Callaway>.

Daly, H.E. & K.N. Townsend, eds. 1992. "Valuing The Earth: Economics, Ecology, Ethics." MIT Press, publisher's information at <http://mitpress.mit.edu/catalog/item/default.asp?ttype=2&tid=7531>. Amazon.com information at <http://tinyurl.com/yfrmpvv>. Note the searchable "Look Inside" feature. Pages 267-274 "Sustainable Growth: An Impossibility Theorem" are online at <http://dieoff.org/page37.htm>, thanks to Jay Hanson <http://dieoff.org/page1.htm>.

Daly, H.E. & J.B. Cobb. 1944. "For the Common Good: Redirecting the Economy toward Community, the Environment, and a Sustainable Future." Beacon Press; 2nd, Updated edition. Amazon.com information at <http://tinyurl.com/yff5eqc>. Note the searchable "Look Inside" feature.

Daly, H.E. 1994. Speech to the World Bank upon resigning after six years service; online at
<http://acratcliffe.free.fr/sustainability/Herman%20Daly%20Farewell%20Speech.htm>. Daly commences: "Many excellent people work at the World Bank, and usually work very competently and very hard, probably too hard. But, top-down management, misguided by an UNREALISTIC VISION OF DEVELOPMENT AS THE GENERALIZATION OF NORTHERN OVER-CONSUMPTION TO THE RAPIDLY MULTIPLYING MASSES OF THE SOUTH. . . .[[My CAPS]]. . . has led to many external failures, both economic and ecological. These external failures, due to faulty vision and hearing, will be considered later, but for now I just note that external failure also undermines internal morale. The unrealistic vision of development should be blamed at least as much on academic economic theorists as on World Bank practitioners."


Daly, H.E. 1997. "Beyond Growth: The Economics of Sustainable Development." Beacon Press; publisher's information at <http://www.beacon.org/productdetails.cfm?SKU=4709>. Amazon.com information at <http://tinyurl.com/ygemamr>. A searchable Google book preview is online at <http://tinyurl.com/yju664q>. For a good review see Hobson (1999). Pages 1-10.3 of the 23 page "Introduction" with links to Daly (1994) and Hansen (1995)] are online at <http://acratcliffe.free.fr/sustainability/beyond%20growth.htm>, thanks to Pierre Ratcliffe (2009). See also Daly & Townsend (1992), Daly & Cobb (1994), Daly (1994), Hansen (1995), Daly & Farley (2003), and Daly (2008, 2009).

Daly, H.E. & J. Farley. 2003. "Ecological Economics: Principles And Applications." Island Press, publisher's information at <http://www.islandpress.com/bookstore/details.php?prod_id=389>. Amazon.com information at <http://tinyurl.com/yzwf3ul>. Note the searchable "Look Inside" feature. Good companion texts for an interdisciplinary economics/physics course might be Aubrecht (2006) and Hobson (2009).

Daly, H.E. 2008. "A Steady-State Economy: A failed growth economy and a steady-state economy are not the same thing; they are the very different alternatives we face," Sustainable Development Commission, UK, April 24; online at
<http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications/downloads/Herman_Daly_thinkpiece.pdf> (136 kB).

Daly, H.E. 2009. "Incorporating Values in a Bottom-Line Ecological Economy," Bulletin of Science, Technology, & Society 29(5): 349-357; online to subscribers at
<http://bst.sagepub.com/content/vol29/issue5/>.

Duderstadt, J.J. 2000. "A University for the 21st Century." Univ. of Michigan Press; for a description see <http://tinyurl.com/9lhpl>. A Google book preview is online at <http://tinyurl.com/yhna54k>.

Hake, R.R. 1998a. "Interactive-engagement vs traditional methods: A six-thousand-student survey of mechanics test data for introductory physics courses," Am. J. Phys. 66: 64-74; online at <http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~sdi/ajpv3i.pdf> (84 kB).

Hake, R.R. 1998b. "Interactive-engagement methods in introductory mechanics courses," online at <http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~sdi/IEM-2b.pdf> (108 kB). A crucial companion paper to Hake (1998a).

Hake, R.R. 2009a. "Energy Efficiency, the Jevons Paradox, and the Elephant in the Room: Overpopulation #4," online on the OPEN! AERA-L archives at <http://tinyurl.com/yj2pmqp>. Post of 20 Oct 2009 14:25:15 -0700 to AERA-L, Net-Gold, PhysLrnR, & Physoc. The abstract only was transmitted to various discussion lists (but not to Dewey-L) under the more descriptive title "HERMAN DALY'S ECOLOGICAL ECONOMIST VIEW CONTRASTED WITH THE TRADITIONAL ECONOMIST VIEW OF LAWRENCE SUMMERS AND THE WORLD BANK."

Hake, R.R. 2009b. "Misconceptions in the Population/Energy Debate #2," online on the OPEN! AERA-L archives at <http://tinyurl.com/yf7zybn>. Post of 16 Nov 2009 09:49:41-0800 to AERA-L & Net-Gold. The abstract only was sent to several discussion lists but not to Dewey-L.

Hansen, K. 1995. "The Irrationality of Homo Economicus," Interview with Herman Daly, online at <http://acratcliffe.free.fr/sustainability/Herman%20Daly.htm>.

Hobson, A. 1999. Review of Daly (1997), APS Forum on Physics and Society Newsletter 28(2), 2 April; online at <http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/1999/april/rapr99.html#a1>.

Hobson, A. 2009 "Physics: Concepts and Connections," 5th edition, available about 18 Dec. 2009. Addison Wesley; publisher's information including the Table of Contents at <http://tinyurl.com/y9ej9n9>. Author's information (for the 4th edition) at <http://physics.uark.edu/hobson/pcc.html>. Amazon.com information at <http://tinyurl.com/ycr67vx>. Note the serachable "Look Inside" feature. A good companion text for an interdisciplinary physics/economics course might be Daly & Farley (2003).

Iacono. T. 2009. "Greenspan: Another Crisis Is Inevitable," Seeking Alpha blog entry of 9 Sept, online at <http://tinyurl.com/ygzdqzw> with 15 comments as of 27 November 2009..

Jackson, T. 2009. "Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet." Earthscan Publications Ltd; publisher's information at <http://tinyurl.com/yzck432>. A FREE pre-publication copy may be downloaded as a 3 MB pdf at <http://tinyurl.com/yeasa3q>.

Ratcliff, P. 2009. "Sustainable Development," blog at <http://acratcliffe.free.fr/sustainability/frame.htm>. Primarily in French, but the left hand column contains links to many resources in English, including #25,"Introductory chapter to "Beyond Growth" by Herman Daly."

Sarbu, M. 2009. "Re: Castles in the Sky" Dewey-L post of 26 Nov 2009 14:27:11-0500; online on the OPEN! Dewey-L archives at <http://tinyurl.com/y8no7k9>.