Some Physhare and Phys-L subscribers might be interested in a recent
post "Misconceptions in the Population/Energy Debate #2" [Hake
(2009)]. The abstract reads:
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ABSTRACT: In response to my post "Energy Efficiency, the Jevons
Paradox, and the Elephant in the Room: Overpopulation #4," Alfredo
Luoro (2009) made 7 comments, chief among them being his
MISCONCEPTION that I had made: (a) "vague reference to the
exponential function," and (b) the naive claim that "in planning to
curb carbon emissions in the future it will be more effective to
limit population growth than to limit fossil fuel consumption." On
the contrary, I made *no* reference to an exponential and wrote
(paraphrasing): "I think recognition of *both* the 20,000 lb
overpopulation elephant and the 600 lb energy-use gorilla is
necessary, but not sufficient, to promote the preservation of life on
planet Earth."
Noah Podolfsky then reinforced Luoro's MISCONCEPTIONS by writing
(paraphrasing): "I agree with Luoro - we need to make sure models
actually match the data. The Sigma Xi data show that the population
vs time curve is LINEAR since 1965. Before 1965, population growth
was roughly exponential so it's not surprising that books like 'The
Population Bomb' and 'Limits to Growth' were so alarming, in their
time. A more recent book 'Limits to Growth: The 30-year Update' might
be of interest. I haven't read it - but descriptions suggest it
carries a similar theme, albeit more nuanced given 30 years of
additional data and time to reflect on the problem."
More "nuanced"? If Podolfsky and others would scan the authors' sage
PREFACE [online at <http://tinyurl.com/yzw4mmh> and extensively
quoted in this post] to "Limits to Growth: The 30-year Update"
[Meadows et al. (2004)], they would find the following non-nuanced
statements: (a) "THE HIGHLY AGGREGATED SCENARIOS OF WORLD3 STILL
APPEAR, AFTER 30 YEARS, TO BE SURPRISINGLY ACCURATE," and (b)" WE ARE
MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE GLOBAL FUTURE THAN WE WERE IN 1972."
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What does all this have to do with physics education? H.G. Wells
(1920) wrote: "Human history becomes more and more a race between
education and catastrophe." Eighty-nine years later James J.
Duderstadt (2000), University of Michigan President Emeritus and
Professor of Science and Engineering in his book "A University for
the 21st Century" echoed Wells' emphasis on the importance of
education, writing: "Universities must take the lead in developing
knowledge and educating the world's citizens to allow us to live upon
our planet while protecting it."
This post with over 100 academic references, over 150 hot-linked
URL's, and 7 sage quotes, provides a window onto the vast literature
of energy, natural resources, demographics, economics, and systems
thinking; all as applied to societal concerns.
REFERENCES
Duderstadt, J.J. 2000. "A University for the 21st Century." Univ. of
Michigan Press; for a description see <http://tinyurl.com/9lhpl>. A
Google book preview is online at <http://tinyurl.com/yhna54k>.
Hake, R.R. 2009. "Misconceptions in the Population/Energy Debate #2,"
online on the OPEN! AERA-L archives at <http://tinyurl.com/yf7zybn>.
Post of 16 Nov 2009 09:49:41-0800 to AERA-L & Net-Gold. The abstract
only will be sent to several discussion lists.