Chronology Current Month Current Thread Current Date
[Year List] [Month List (current year)] [Date Index] [Thread Index] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Date Prev] [Date Next]

[Phys-l] Misconceptions in the Population/Energy Debate #2



Some Physhare and Phys-L subscribers might be interested in a recent post "Misconceptions in the Population/Energy Debate #2" [Hake (2009)]. The abstract reads:

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~
ABSTRACT: In response to my post "Energy Efficiency, the Jevons Paradox, and the Elephant in the Room: Overpopulation #4," Alfredo Luoro (2009) made 7 comments, chief among them being his MISCONCEPTION that I had made: (a) "vague reference to the exponential function," and (b) the naive claim that "in planning to curb carbon emissions in the future it will be more effective to limit population growth than to limit fossil fuel consumption." On the contrary, I made *no* reference to an exponential and wrote (paraphrasing): "I think recognition of *both* the 20,000 lb overpopulation elephant and the 600 lb energy-use gorilla is necessary, but not sufficient, to promote the preservation of life on planet Earth."

Noah Podolfsky then reinforced Luoro's MISCONCEPTIONS by writing (paraphrasing): "I agree with Luoro - we need to make sure models actually match the data. The Sigma Xi data show that the population vs time curve is LINEAR since 1965. Before 1965, population growth was roughly exponential so it's not surprising that books like 'The Population Bomb' and 'Limits to Growth' were so alarming, in their time. A more recent book 'Limits to Growth: The 30-year Update' might be of interest. I haven't read it - but descriptions suggest it carries a similar theme, albeit more nuanced given 30 years of additional data and time to reflect on the problem."

More "nuanced"? If Podolfsky and others would scan the authors' sage PREFACE [online at <http://tinyurl.com/yzw4mmh> and extensively quoted in this post] to "Limits to Growth: The 30-year Update" [Meadows et al. (2004)], they would find the following non-nuanced statements: (a) "THE HIGHLY AGGREGATED SCENARIOS OF WORLD3 STILL APPEAR, AFTER 30 YEARS, TO BE SURPRISINGLY ACCURATE," and (b)" WE ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE GLOBAL FUTURE THAN WE WERE IN 1972."
~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

To access the complete 99 kB (!!) post please click on <http://tinyurl.com/yf7zybn>.

What does all this have to do with physics education? H.G. Wells (1920) wrote: "Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe." Eighty-nine years later James J. Duderstadt (2000), University of Michigan President Emeritus and Professor of Science and Engineering in his book "A University for the 21st Century" echoed Wells' emphasis on the importance of education, writing: "Universities must take the lead in developing knowledge and educating the world's citizens to allow us to live upon our planet while protecting it."

This post with over 100 academic references, over 150 hot-linked URL's, and 7 sage quotes, provides a window onto the vast literature of energy, natural resources, demographics, economics, and systems thinking; all as applied to societal concerns.

Richard Hake, Emeritus Professor of Physics, Indiana University
24245 Hatteras Street, Woodland Hills, CA 91367
Honorary Member, Curmudgeon Lodge of Deventer, The Netherlands.
<rrhake@earthlink.net>
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake/>
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~sdi/>
<http://HakesEdStuff.blogspot.com/>

REFERENCES
Duderstadt, J.J. 2000. "A University for the 21st Century." Univ. of Michigan Press; for a description see <http://tinyurl.com/9lhpl>. A Google book preview is online at <http://tinyurl.com/yhna54k>.

Hake, R.R. 2009. "Misconceptions in the Population/Energy Debate #2," online on the OPEN! AERA-L archives at <http://tinyurl.com/yf7zybn>. Post of 16 Nov 2009 09:49:41-0800 to AERA-L & Net-Gold. The abstract only will be sent to several discussion lists.

Wells, H.G. 1920. "The Outline of History." For an interesting history of this treatise see <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Outline_of_History>. For Amazon.com information on a two volume set published in 2008 by Native American Press see <http://tinyurl.com/yjs83d>.