Re: [Phys-l] Still More Global Warming

[Rick Tarara <rtarara@saintmarys.edu>]

One of the major holes in the data is the fine detail surrounding other warm 
(and cold) periods.  While the 'hockey stick' may be unique, we don't have 
the year to year data surrounding most historically verified warm/cold 
periods.  We do know that there was a rapid major cooling about 10,000 years 
ago believed due to flooding the North Atlantic with fresh water from a 
pre-historic lake in Canada.  That data at least tells us that major 
temperature change can happen quickly (something like 10 degrees F over 100 
years) and fuels the concern about the current warming trend.  However, I 
don't think we can say for sure that the current rate of increase 
(remembering that it is still less than 1 degree C) is unprecedented in 
global history.  One of the 'tricks'--a common technique in science--is a 
change in scale.  Long range historical temps are shown on one scale while 
recent temperatures are usually shown on a much expanded scale--which 
emphasizes the 'hockey stick'.

Rick

***************************
Richard W. Tarara
Professor of Physics
Saint Mary's College
Notre Dame, IN
rtarara@saintmarys.edu
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Free Physics Software
PC & Mac
www.saintmarys.edu/~rtarara/software.html
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----- Original Message ----- 
From: "David Appell" <appell@nasw.org>

> Daryl L Taylor wrote:
> > However, not only has Mann's work been
> > discredited scientifically, it has been discredited mathematically and
> > historically.
>
> It is not true that Mann's work has been disproven. Here's what New 
> Scientist had to say about it just this May:
>
>     "Most researchers would agree that while the original
>     hockey stick can -- and has -- been improved in a number
>     of ways, it was not far off the mark. Most later temperature 
> reconstructions fall within the error bars of the original hockey
>     stick.
>
>     "Climate myths: The 'hockey stick' graph has been proven wrong"
>
> http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11646-climate-myths-the-hockey-stick-graph-has-been-proven-wrong.html
>
> A host of other reconstructions have independently reached the same, 
> "hockey stick" conclusion:
>
>
> http://environment.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/cms/mg18925431.400/mg18925431.400-2_752.jpg
>
> David
> --
> David Appell
> e: appell@nasw.org
> w: http://www.nasw.org/users/appell
> m: Portland, OR
>
>
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