Chronology Current Month Current Thread Current Date
[Year List] [Month List (current year)] [Date Index] [Thread Index] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Date Prev] [Date Next]

Re: [Phys-l] Still More Global Warming



Hi, Jim. You are on the right track with the periodic climates. I'd point
you to a book on this exact topic; there are others, but this is a good
start:

'Unstoppable Global Warming; Every 15,000 Years' by Fred Singer and Dennis
Avery (Rowman & Littlefield Pub) 2007.
Singer is a research prof at George Mason Univ.
OVERVIEW:
The above book lays out an overview of research done by Willi Dansgaard of
Denmark, Hans Oeschger of Switzerland & Claude Lorius of France. These three
won the Tyler Prize (lovingly referred to as the 'Environmental Nobel') in
1996 for their work in documenting a 1500-year cycle of climate changes
throughout at least the last one MILLION years. This through the direct
analysis of ice cores both new and existing. These cycles are now called the
"Dansgaard-Oeschger" cycles. (No clue why Lorius isn't titled there...)
The 1500-year cycles were found 'hidden' within the 90,000-year ice-age
pattern that they expected to find. In fact, according to
Dansgaard-Oeschger, these cycles persist regardless of the CO2 levels and we
are currently about 150 years INTO a 'moderate' Modern Warming period that
they expect to last for the next few centuries; equaling the Medieval
Climate Optimum of 900-1300 AD where the average global temp was 2-3 degrees
C warmer than now with how much man-made CO2 in the atmosphere?

All in all, if anyone would bother to look at the data, none of the past
warming periods coincides with an increase in atmospheric CO2. In fact, CO2
levels have been hugely huge in the past and never associated with causing
climate change. Why now? See http://www.darylscience.com/CO2-1.bmp . I'll
dig out where I found that if you need. It is a basic little graph of 'time
ago' and CO2 levels. As you can see, the highest levels are quite a while
ago. Many folks argue that what was happening 400 million years ago has
nothing to do with today. I beg to differ and ask that they try to view the
'big picture'. However, most interestingly, within the last 100 Million
years, the CO2 levels were about ten times what they are now. I don't think
T-Rex was running around in his Hummer polluting the atmosphere and causing
global warming back then.
The only sources of data that have any correlation with global temps and CO2
are most of the computer sims hat have been shown time and again to be
suspect. Computer sims can't even get my weekend forecast right...

Another book to take a gander at is:

"The Chilling Stars" by Henrik Svensmark & Nigel Calder. (Icon Books, UK)
2007. Svensmark is the one credited with the cosmic ray connection to
climate. He and his team has now pinpoinyed the path of the solar system
through its travel in and out of the spiral arms of the Milky Way galaxy. It
seems that when we are inside an arm, there is more cosmic ray exposure from
'nearby' stars and novae and such. These times are associated with cold
periods since Svensmark claims that cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere are
responsible for cloud production, thus reflecting sunlight, thus cooling
overall. When we are outside the arms, it's warmer because of less clouds,
more sunlight.
Some claim that the cosmic ray thing is crap and has never been shown in a
lab. Well, allow me to set them straight. The SKY ('cloud' in Danish)
experiment at CERN, a little lab somewhere in Europe, has shown Svensmark's
ideas to be feasible.

The global warming issue has, IMHO, left the scientific community and is
now in main-stream thought as a 'fact'. It is far from that. Yes, many on
this list will now assail the e-waves trying to debunk this post. Well,
summer's over. I'm back home with beer in hand. So, let the debunker
debunkers begin.

BZ, if you're lurking, my reply on this very topic will be forthcoming ASAP.


Daryl L Taylor, Fizzix Guy
Greenwich HS, CT
PAEMST '96
IEOTY '03
NASA Astrophysics Educator Ambassador

This email sent using 100% certified recycled electrons.
-----Original Message-----
From: phys-l-bounces@carnot.physics.buffalo.edu
[mailto:phys-l-bounces@carnot.physics.buffalo.edu] On Behalf Of JMGreen
Sent: Monday, August 20, 2007 1:45 PM
To: Forum for Physics Educators
Subject: [Phys-l] Still More Global Warming

I am still trying to understand Global Warming -- and the topic just
seems not to go away -- even Gore on Oprah for Pete's sake.

Do I understand correctly? -- sort of?:

Every 23kyr or so the Earth warms up -- and some 12kyr later it
freezes. Ocean level varies some 30m in the process. The people in
Florida don't much like this; the people in Canada are delighted when
it gets warmer.

Sometimes people make a mess of the atmosphere -- worse in some
places -- eg in LA and Bejing (sp?)

We need some green house gasses to keep tolerably warn -- nuclear
reactions in the core don't suffice.

But why 23kyrs? Well that is the period of the Earth's precession.

But why does the precession change the Earth's average
temperature? Yes, the tilt tinkers with weather patterns, but the
cross section toward the Sun doesn't change.

A bit of tutoring would be appreciated.

Jim

J M Green
Email: MailTo:JMGreen@sisna.com
WWW: HTTP://users.sisna.com/JMGreen

_______________________________________________
Forum for Physics Educators
Phys-l@carnot.physics.buffalo.edu
https://carnot.physics.buffalo.edu/mailman/listinfo/phys-l