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Re: [Phys-l] Scientists speaking outside their fields. Was... The Cause of Global Warming...



On 05/21/2007 10:47 PM, Michael Edmiston wrote:

If you don't have the ability or time or money to figure something out yourself, who are you going to trust? That an expert could be wrong and a 10-year old could be correct are not going to make me start asking ten-year-olds advice about global warming, or to diagnose what is wrong with my car, or why I have indigestion, or how to manage my retirement portfolio.

I have dealt with "expert" medical doctors on matters quite
a bit more serious than indigestion. I don't claim to know
more about medicine than they do ... but that doesn't mean I
have to blindly trust them. Off the cuff I can think of three
separate cases where I played the role of patient advocate, and
if I had trusted the doctors, one of my relatives would be dead
and two of my physicist colleagues would be dead.

The medical care system in this country is capable of miracles
upon occasion, but it is also capable of monumental screw-ups
on a daily basis.

Who am I going to trust? Why should I give /anyone/ my absolute
trust?

As people with less authority, or fewer credentials, or less experience interact with those who have the authority, credentials, experience I would hope the authority figures would be honest, talk about uncertainty, explain the ways that less experienced scientists misunderstand the data or the theories, etc.

That is quite a naive hope. Hoping does not make it so.

Go back to early 2003 and suppose you want to know about the
contemporary and future status of Iraq. Are you going to trust
Paul Wolfowitz, because he had degrees /in the field/ from
big-name schools like Cornell, Chicago, and Yale? Are you
trusting him that there are WMDs and we know where they are,
that US troops will be welcomed as liberators, and Iraq will
pay for its own reconstruction out of its oil revenues, et
cetera? He's not just an expert, he is an /authority/ in
every meaning of the word.

I would hope the less experienced would have sufficient experience to follow the argument, understand why the authority says what she says, and be able to make a judgment about the likelihood that the expert is correct.

That's almost the whole ball of wax right there. That seems
to say people should think for themselves. If they can't do
the primary research, they should do some secondary analysis
to see to what extent the available stories make sense. I
agree with that!

But again, hoping doesn't make it so. Teaching might make it
so.
-- Let's teach them they can think for themselves.
-- Let's teach them they must think for themselves.
-- Let's teach them how to think for themselves.


Also, we should not imagine it is a question of low-status people
who have to trust (or distrust) high-status people. Imagine
yourself for a moment in the shoes of some high-ranking manager.
You have to get information from the people "below" you. But
they may not be reliable sources of information. Many of them
will be busy telling you what they think you want to hear, sucking
up in hopes of advancement. King Lear found out about this the
hard way.

Good managers are aware of this problem, and go to great lengths
to defend against it. We could spend weeks if not years discussing
how to distinguish the truth-tellers from the suck-ups. Doing
physics is hard, but being a good manager is hard, too.

There is another group of people who don't even feel there is a right and wrong. It's a matter of who is more persuasive. I once suffered under a dean who was a philosophy major in college, got a PhD in philosophy, then went to law school, but quit law school to become dean. He was proud of his logic and reasoning skills, and especially proud of his debating skills. He liked to exclaim that anyone would give him any side of a debate on any topic and he could win the debate hands-down. Originally I thought he was only boasting about his intelligence and debating skills. But later I came to realize he genuinely did not believe in absolute truth or reality. He especially disliked scientists for thinking they had a corner on truth. He, like many others of this ilk, had an agenda and would use his debating skills to discredit and walk all over anyone who stood in his way. Needless to say, he and I did not get along. I am still here, and he is long gone, but it was a difficult struggle.

Yes indeed. There are lots and lots of such people.

I am reminded of the anecdote reported by Ron Suskind:

The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the
reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe
that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible
reality." I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment
principles and empiricism. He cut me off. "That's not the way the
world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now,
and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're
studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act
again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and
that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and
you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

http://www.cs.umass.edu/~immerman/play/opinion05/WithoutADoubt.html

These people are openly contemptuous of the "reality-based community"
AND THEY ARE RUNNING THE COUNTRY right now. They are the official
authorities! Do you really want to trust the authorities????

Additional information concerning political interference in science:
http://www.ucsusa.org/scientific_integrity/interference/

The problem is not confined to politics, government, and a
dean here and there. I do some consulting, and commonly have to
deal with an "expert witness" who has all sorts of "credentials"
but serves as nothing more than a liar for hire. It's amazing
how few pieces of silver it takes to buy a man.

Also, as discussed at
http://www.av8n.com/physics/authority.htm#sec-soft-evidence
authority is related to reputation, which is a /lagging/ indicator.
Somebody who previously had a good reputation might decide to sell
out.

I guess where I am going with this is that I think appeal to authority is necessary because there are many, many situations where we have to vote or make a decision about something for which we do not have the ability, or time, or money to do the research ourselves. That's why we specialize and have experts. Unfortunately, even if we decide we need specialization and experts, we still have a bundle of problems.

Saying "appeal to authority is necessary" is wildly open to
misinterpretation. I would say that authorities provide one form
of _soft evidence_. Soft evidence never outweighs hard evidence.
In the absence of hard evidence, soft evidence must be considered,
but even so, the various sources of soft evidence must be weighed
and only tentatively accepted, never blindly accepted.

What do we do about persuasive people like the former dean who have an agenda that does not involve the truth?

That's the problem. Just because somebody says he's an "expert"
doesn't mean he can be blindly trusted. Just because somebody has
a PhD doesn't mean he can be blindly trusted.

The fact that some of these people are scientists, coupled with some truly incompetent scientists, have led the public to give scientists about the same level of trust as they give used-car salesmen (so I've heard).

Actually worse than used-car salesmen. Try to think of a
popular movie that portrays a scientist as anything other than
a creepy loser or a madman who (inadvertently or otherwise)
puts the entire world at risk.

It seems the typical citizen can't trust the politicians, can't trust businessmen, and feel they can't trust the scientists.

The public has good reason to feel that way.

And I'm not convinced it's a problem that they feel that way.
Once upon a time the people placed absolute trust in priests
in black robes. Why should they now place absolute trust in
guys in white lab coats?

"Read not to contradict and confute,
nor to believe and take for granted...
but to weigh and consider."
-- Francis Bacon

On the issue of global warming, it appears to me there are quite a few people (politicians, businessmen, and some scientists) with agendas that have nothing to do with the search for truth. Then there is another group who are searching for the truth but don't think we have it yet. Naomi Oreskes says the scientific community clearly has reached consensus that we know the truth (global warming is occurring and humans are casuing it). But the discussion on this list would seem to indicate this group is not there yet. Oreskes clearly says she is talking about the "climate experts" being in consensus that people are causing global warning. That brings me back to the original questions about authority. If Oreskes is correct that the climate experts are in agreement that human-caused global warming is occuring, what happens next? Do we believe them and act accordingly, or do we drag our feet on taking action until the experts have fully convinced the rest of the scientific community they are correct? Assuming they are correct, what will it take, and how long will it take for them to convince the rest of us? Do we have that much time?

That's too binary, too black and white. There is no need to
choose between "no trust" and "absolute unquestioning trust".

Sometimes the right answer is "I don't know". The world would
be a lot better off if more people were willing to say they
don't know when they don't know.

It is important to keep in mind that it is not necessary to
know everything in order to move forward. In science, in
business, in government, just as in ordinary daily life,
people make decisions based on highly incomplete data. It
is possible to play poker even if you don't know exactly
what cards the other guy is holding. You gather all the
information you can, then play the odds.

This can be formalized in terms of _scenario planning_. There
are books on how to do scenario planning. In important matters
it is worth doing it in considerable detail. The idea is to
consider all the plausible scenarios, and to take actions now
that will work out OK in /all/ those scenarios. We could spend
days or months discussing the details if people are interested.