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Re: [Phys-l] Basic statistics



David Bowman wrote:
Regarding Brian's comments:

Probability is a measure of ones state of knowledge, not a property
of the system.

Whoa, there. It's true that this approach does not interpret the
fundamental meaning of probabilites as the asymptotic relative
frequencies of particular outcomes for infinite ensembles of copies
of the system (or random process) at hand. But a Bayesian
interpretation of probability is not really based on anything as
subjective as the state of knowledge any particular person's mind.

I agree.

Such a characterization is really a straw man that opponents of that
approach tend to level at it. Rather, this interpretation of
probablity is just as objectively defined as the relative frequency
approach. In the Bayesian approach probability is a measure of the
ideal degree of confidence that an ideal perfectly rational mind
would have about the state (or outcome) of the system (or random
process) given only all the objectively available data extant for
that system/process upon which to assign such a confidence measure on
the various possible outcomes.

definitely better, and much more clearly stated than I did. I was trying to keep it short, and to the point, but I guess "state of knowledge" does have the wishy-washy connotations you describe.

thanks for the clarification.


bb



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bblais@bryant.edu
http://web.bryant.edu/~bblais