1) There is a distinction between WEATHER and CLIMATE. We normally
consider weather to be local and current whereas climate is more regional
(even global) and long term. The big question here is what do variations or
anomalies in the weather tell us about the climate?
2) The argument 'what if we are simply coming out of a glaciation period'
can just as well be turned around--'what if we are going into a natural
cooling--even glaciation--period'. In the latter case, then the effect of
human activities would already be extreme.
3) While Canada and Siberia might well welcome a serious warming trend, you
will find almost nowhere in the world that would welcome a 1-2 meter rise in
ocean levels. Another degree or two of global warming will have really
severe consequences for all coastal regions.
4) The 'sane' push here is to seriously examine the greenhouse emissions of
human activity as an INSURANCE policy against causing really severe climatic
effects. I don't think any of the models predict severe problems IF we cut
back carbon emissions (and we can always start them up again). The BIG
PROBLEM is that this is no easy task in a technological world that runs on
ENERGY derived (90%) from the fossil fuels. It is NOT a simple case of
let's just switch over to Wind and Solar energy. I'm currently working on a
new energy simulator which will emphasize this point by letting students try
and switch over from oil and natural gas to renewables but takes economic
factors into account. It soon becomes clear that an industrialized nation
such as the U.S. will need to invest TRILLIONS ($10^12) of dollars to
accomplish such and it will take well over a century to accomplish (at
$100-200 billion per year). Few (if any) of the industrialized nations of
the world are prepared to commit to this kind of expenditure especially when
any gains can be quickly wiped out if India and China start using fossil
fuels at Western rates. [The simulator based on my class energy
project--see below--should be available this Fall. I'll also put a last
second plug in for the AAPT workshop '21st Century Energy' being presented
by Greg Mulder, Pat Keefe, and myself next Sunday.]
Rick
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Richard W. Tarara
Professor of Physics
Saint Mary's College
Notre Dame, IN 46556
rtarara@saintmarys.edu
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FREE Windows & Mac Instructional Software
www.saintmarys.edu/~rtarara/software.html
Energy 2100 project info: http://www.saintmarys.edu/~rtarara/ENERGY_PROJECT/ENERGY2100.htm
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