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This is a very important topic. It is woefully neglected in
the usual educational process, up to and including the physics
PhD level. I wrote up some notes on how to evaluate research
projects and other creative, risky-but-worthwhile endeavors.
Please see:
http://www.monmouth.com/~jsd/physics/projectology.htm
Section titles include:
1 Choose a Great Project
2 Creativity vs. Focus
3 Risks Must Pay Off
4 Long-Term Research