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There is one other hypothesis which has not been included in your list. The
method of teaching is inappropriate to getting students to understand the
relationships.
One would presume that any successful method would have to
include the missing pieces that have been listed, as well as supplying some
motivation and require active engagement rather than just note taking. No
teacher wants to admit that the methods they are using do not work, but that
may be exactly the case.
The motivational factor is obviously important. On thing that I see is that
the thinking level appears to put a limit on what can be learned, but below
that limit students achieve gain scores all the way from zero to that limit.
Perhaps increasing the types of experiences that the students have, and
working on certain basic skills may increase the limit, but increasing the
thinking level is really a better solution.