Are you sure what the scientists have actually 'signed onto' versus what the
press has reported? As stated, there are many scenario/storylines. The 10
degree F storyline is of most interest to the press and the more extreme
environmental groups and therefore likely to be emphasized by such. The 0-1
degree F storylines are of most interest to the fossil fuel industry and are
the ones they publicize. How many of the 245 storylines produce 2-5 degree
F changes in the next 100 years? Many I suspect, and the models for such
are less controversial than for the extremes. It is this range of
predictions that should be of concern and should attract the most study
(both in terms of global effects and in terms of strategies that deal with
the 'causes'). With _almost_ all the modeling predicting _some_ temperature
rise we need to consider the probable consequences and then decide whether
it would be prudent to insure ourselves against the most negative of those
consequences. Ultimately that determination must be based on the best
available science and the best estimates of economic and social costs of
proposed actions. However, time may be crucial. The next century could see
a huge increase in the use of fossil fuels (especially coal) if large
developing nations (China, India, Brazil) accelerate their energy programs,
and once such programs gather speed, it will be very difficult to derail
them even if the evidence (say 20 years from now) definitely points to major
warming. It is a much bigger stretch to imagine that we can harm the
environment by cutting back on the use of fossil fuels than that we can do
serious harm with the continued and increased use of such.
The bottom line: I'm sure you will find most scientists in the field would
'predict' a 2-5 degree F rise in the next 100 years based on the multitude
of models. There are a few who are probably convinced that no change will
occur and a few who _really_ back the extreme 10 degree rise, but anything
over 1 degree will certainly have major consequences and we need to
understand the possibilities as well as the probabilities.
Rick
**********************************************
Richard W. Tarara
Professor of Physics
Saint Mary's College
Notre Dame, IN 46556
rtarara@saintmarys.edu
FREE PHYSICS INSTRUCTIONAL SOFTWARE
www.saintmarys.edu/~rtarara/
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******************************************************
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim Green" <JMGreen@SISNA.COM>
To: <PHYS-L@lists.nau.edu>
Sent: Wednesday, February 28, 2001 1:47 AM
Subject: Smoke and Mirrors at the United Nations