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Re: Weather Forecasts (was Laws and Theories)



As a side note, we had a local meteorologist visit our department who
described experiential forcasting as using his own experience to adjust what
forecasts they downloaded off of the computer predictions. I took this to
mean that if in their experience these forcasts tended to predict the
temperature of Sioux Falls to be a little high, they might arbitrarily lower
their temperature prediction by a few degrees. etc

Joel Rauber

*I don't debate Leigh's version of the story, but my guess is that
nowadays "experiential" forecasting refers to the forecast
made by using
the forecaster's understanding of climatology or "experience"
(i.e., what
is the average for that day and what is normal given the conditions).

On Wed, 8 Mar 2000, Leigh Palmer wrote:



The speaker replied "What is experiential forecasting? Experiential
forecasting is predicting that tomorrow's weather will be
like today's."

Leigh