Chronology Current Month Current Thread Current Date
[Year List] [Month List (current year)] [Date Index] [Thread Index] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Date Prev] [Date Next]

Re: ET

On Saturday, Yvon Jean wrote:

What is the formula for calculating the probability of Extra-Terrestrial =
life out there? =20

I think you are referring to the Drake equation, invented by Frank Drake
some years ago, in which he multiplied the independent probabilities of the
various factors that would have to come together to enable us to detect the
presence of an ET civilization. I'm sorry I don't have my book that discuss
the equation handy (they are at school), but it has been dealt with
extensively in books on the topic of SETI by Sagan, Bracewell, Rood &
Trefil, among others. My recollection is that the popular book by Rood &
Trefil had the most detailed discussion of the subject. The fact that
different authors can come up with wildly different values for the
probability of finding an ET civilization using reasonable probablilities
at each step of the Drake equation, probably indicates that the Drake
equation, in the light of our present state of ignorance, is not a very
reliable predictor of the existence of ET life.

Hugh


Hugh Haskell
<mailto://hhaskell@mindspring.com>

Let's face it. People use a Mac because they want to, Windows because they
have to..
******************************************************