(c) 1998 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science
....Even more controversial than the threat of asteroid impacts is what I
would call perhaps one of the greatest scandals in the history of science,
the cold fusion caper. Like almost everyone else, I was surprised when
Pons and Fleischmann announced that they had achieved fusion in the
laboratory; and surprise changed to disappointment when I learned that
most of those who had rushed to confirm these results were unable to
replicate them. Wondering first how two world-class scientists could have
fooled themselves, I then forgot the whole matter for a year or so, until
more and more reports surfaced, from many countries, of anomalous energy
production in various devices (some of them apparently having nothing to
do with fusion). Agreeing with Carl Sagan's principle that "extraordinary
claims require extraordinary proofs" (spoken in connection with UFOs and
alien visitors), I remained interested, but skeptical.
Now I have little doubt that anomalous energy is being produced by several
devices, some of which are on the market with a money back guarantee,
while others are covered by patents. The literature on the subject is now
enormous, and my confidence that "new energy" is real slowly climbed to
the 90th percentile and has now reached the 99% level. A Fellow of the
Royal Society, also originally a skeptic, writes: "There is now strong
evidence for nuclear reactions in condensed matter at low temp erature."
The problem, he adds, is that "there is no theoretical basis for these
claims, or rather there are too many conflicting theories."
Yet recall that the steam engine had been around for quite a while before
Carnot explained exactly how it worked. The challenge now is to see which
of the various competing devices is most reliable. My guess is that large-
scale industrial application will begin around the turn of the century--at
which point one can imagine the end of the fossil-fuel-nuclear age, making
concerns about global warming irrelevant, as oil-and-coal-burning systems
are phased out...