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I thought John Mallinckrodt's observation about a retarding force
having a greater than first power velocity dependence providing
effective lift to be a revelation here. I'd never heard of such a
thing, but it is obviously true - and significant. It explains for
me why bullets fired from a rifle don't fall with acceleration g.
I have written an authority for information on this topic and I
will, of course, share it when I get it.)
I think that v-squared dependence is not an issue here. The only issue
is whether the drag term for the vertically falling bullet is less than
the vertical component of drag for the horizontally fired bullet. This
is a question about objects which inevitably fall; they have downward
velocity components despite the brief horizontal motion.