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Re: Marilyn and puppy litters




On Mon, 11 Aug 1997 19:04:30 -0800 (PST) John Mallinckrodt
<ajmallinckro@CSUPomona.Edu> writes:
So, did anyone else think Marilyn blew it yesterday?

John

P.S. For the "Parade Magazine-deprived," Marilyn had the cover article
this week and the lead question, printed on the cover was, "Your dog
has a
litter of four. Is it most likely that two are males and two are
females?"

P.P.S. Is phys-l working or did somebody break it? Or am I just not
getting my copies? I don't often go this long (four or five days)
between
messages from the list and never saw my last response to brian
whatcott
posted.

Oh well, maybe everybody is in Denver. Wait for me...
-----------------------------------------------------------------
A. John Mallinckrodt http://www.intranet.csupomona.edu/~ajm
Professor of Physics mailto:ajmallinckro@csupomona.edu
Physics Department voice:909-869-4054
Cal Poly Pomona fax:909-869-5090
Pomona, CA 91768-4031 office:Building 8, Room 223

*****************************************************************
Hi John (again),

Dave Bowman has e-mail problems and I really couldn't tell him whether or
not anything interesting had been posted when he asked. Bad memory
probably.

I will now be conventional instead of slick (which got me the wrong
answer in the Two Child Problem (but I said I thought it was wrong when I
posted it - even before I peeked at the other responses). This time I
wrote out the entire sample space and found (conventionally)
p(2,2) = 3/8, p(0,4) = p(4,0) = 1/16, and p(3,0) = p(0,3) = 1/4.
Therefore, although 2 males and 2 females is more likely than any other
particular outcome, it is not more likely than *some* other outcome.
Could this be the entertainment feature in this problem?

I know I don't really know probability. I haven't read and memorized the
contents of both volumes of Feller, worked all the exercises, and
practiced on harder problems of my own invention or from my work. I
have a notion of what probability theory is like. I could use it to
solve many conventional (deterministic) problems and save effort.

I know measure theory (a little) better - once did. Let's see, a
convergent sequence of measurable functions is "usually" uniformly
convergent, where "usually" means "good enough for physics". [I take it
back. Honest. It means that it is a "virtual certainty"?] So, I can't
get too concerned about whether I get this right or not.

But, I really think I'll write Marilyn and ask her why she is throwing
away her life on such meaningless work. I can provide real problems the
solutions of which will affect the survival of life on this planet. She
has a rich husband. Come and work at the American Policy Institute,
Inc., for no pay and make something of yourself. The reason I can't pay
a dollar a year is that it would trigger a nonzero in my income tax
statements, which, having all zeroes as it currently does, can be
completed on one page in less than 10 minutes. We do not wish to become
embroiled in fiduciary matters unless they are research topics that can
achieve worthwhile goals - now and in the far-distant future. If there
is one.

Regards / Tom

P.S. Gee, I practically have the letter written. All I need now is to
send it. *Maybe I will.*